Eels Blogs

NRL 2017 ladder projection: where your club will finish after 26 rounds

Posted by Glenn Lifetime Eel on February 28, 2017 at 6:10am

Source: FOX SPORTS

A STATISTICIAN who successfully predicted 75 per cent of NRL results in 2016 has run through the draw in 2017 and predicted where every team will finish on the ladder after 26 rounds.

Taking into account each team’s roster, fixtures, venues and attacking and defensive rating, Joel Carbone simulated the 2017 NRL season and projected the ladder for the end of the regular season.

The maths whiz subsequently assigned a probability displaying every team’s chance of making the finals — put simply, an 81 per cent chance of making the finals means that if the season was simulated 100 times, that team would make the finals on 81 occasions.

After running the numbers, here’s the ladder Carbone expects to see at the start of September this year.

I can't copy the table to here so this is their order of finish:

Penrith
Storm
Cowboys
Raiders
Broncos
Sharks
Roosters
Warriors
Bulldogs
Titans
Rabbitohs
Eels
Eagles
West Tigers
Dragons
Knights

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Replies

Lisa February 28, 2017 at 6:19am

Eels 12th - Even tho the eels have ome of the easiest draws of the season, the fact remains that due to poor away game form and poor form at ANZ stadium the maths predicts the eels to struggle.
Since ANZ isnt really our home, the eels have no home games this season.

Gutherson in the halves would provide little attacking statistics to go off and an average to below average figure would have been calculated

No goal kicking stats would hurt in the simulation amd maths
- Eelectric Power > Lisa February 28, 2017 at 7:57am
  
  The eels won more games at anz last year than anz, its our new fortress.
Enforcer Eel February 28, 2017 at 7:48am

Think this a fair pick for the 8.

maybe we might just pip the Warriors for the 8??

Our spine is not as competitive as the top 8 he selected. fair call

we do struggle to score points. guess that's why we are in the bottom 8.

lets see after say 6 rounds if we can score points and our spine is a force.
- Eel Nut > Enforcer Eel February 28, 2017 at 9:17am
  
  I believe our defence will be a major contributor for our attack this year!
Carl February 28, 2017 at 8:52am

Off topic just heard that the titans have released Nathan Davis today an ex eel, I wonder if he's the player that wants to go to back to he's old club? As reported yesterday
Eelectric Power February 28, 2017 at 9:01am

Turn it upside down lol
Eel for life February 28, 2017 at 9:04am

Are you kidding me?? 12th - i keep hearing the expert commentators claiming the eels will struggle because of the loss of foran. Have they forgotten he only played 8 or 9 games with us last year and if we didnt have our points deducted we would've made the finals.

I think we have a better squad across the park this year, plus a much more experienced team and guys like gutherson and french with another off season under their belts will thrive.

I reckon we are top 6 for sure
colin hussey February 28, 2017 at 9:46am

Predictions by computer feed and maths, sounds very professional especially before a ball is kicked.

At this point I doubt the eels and some other teams are finalised for the season, will take at least until rounds 6 - 8 to really have any idea of where teams may finish.
- Phil Mann > colin hussey February 28, 2017 at 12:40pm
  
  Col, I'm not so great at maths but I reckon mathematically, we're still a chance at making the 8. It's probably a little too early yet to start a blog on that but I am 100% confident that we will get one of those blogs during the year.
Parrakeet February 28, 2017 at 10:05am

Gee the pressure is on the Panthers everyone is rating them sky high. Eels somewhere between 6-10 this year. I still like last year's team snd besides this is far too early for predictions.