After my last blog painted the bleak picture that Stuart left us with I thought I'd quickly whack in the mid-season numbers to see whether we're much further along.
So here are how the Points Scored For and Against are sitting right now:
Just to recap, the Red Dotted Line is our Points Against (basically how bad our defence is) averaged over a rolling 5 games (so it smooths it out to try to show our average performance for the last 5 weeks). The Green Dotted Line is our Points For (how good our attack is) averaged also over 5 rolling games.
First point, look at that green line climb! Our attack is improving and hasn't stopped improving.
Second point look at that red line fall! Our defence has improved dramatically since last year. However it has appeared to flatline at a relatively concerning place. For us to remain competitive we're going to have to get that red line falling (because I can't see that our green line can keep growing much more than it is since we're already one of the attacking forces of the NRL).
I won't read any more into the stats because it's still a tiny sample to work with and it'll really take the second half of the season to get underway to see if we can sustain what we've started (especially with mounting injuries).
But it's good to see it in pictures. I wasn't really sure how much different we were than last year. I knew we were winning more, but then I'd see some of our blowout games and I'd wonder whether I was kidding myself. So far, no, I'm not. The data backs it up, we are a dramatically improved team on the last few seasons. If we can sustain the green line where it is and get that red line to start a downward trend again we'll really be in business.
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Yes in SOME games our defense has improved but overall we have leaked just as much as the last few years. The lapses are still evident on average every 3 weeks.
Overall we have put in many better performances, but the bad performances, and there has been four of them, have contributed over 200 points to our against column and in the process killed our for and against.
We are still the 2nd worst defensive side so I'm sorry but overall our defense is still incredibly shaky and concerning.
I've I stated before, 2 steps forward and then 2 steps back.
The only way I will agree with you is if we learn from these poundings and begin to lose tight fought arm wrestled matches and not these embarrassing floggings every 3rd week.
*Applauds* This is awesome Captain.
Interesting that the rolling average for defence hasn't had the big spikes, which you would imagine it might have with some of the blow-out scores. What that I'm sure indicates is that the blow-outs have come consistently but spaced out - so pretty much we're getting one really bad result every five games or so. It's now where we want to be, but given we're an attacking side it's not a huge reason for concern. I'd also suggest that is why the defensive results have not kept falling - if we can eliminate the blow-out result that will start dropping again and settle below that 20 mark, which is where you want it to be. It's stunning just how few times over the past five years we've been below that 20 and you don't need any other statistic to understand why we've finished where we have.
The green line is very, very good. Again, that 20 mark is a nice benchmark and we're pushing up beyond that to 30 which I'd suggest is your top four territory
Definite concern Frank but in comparison to last year and previous years I'll take it. Look at the age of some of our middle and edge forwards. We don't have an international prop or second rower to stand up and take charge. That's the reason for those lapses. Timmy Mannah has been carting the ball well, but needs to show more leadership to let the other young forwards know that they can't throw in the towel.
Our forward pack will continue to improve defensively with Arthur at the helm, but that only comes with more first grade experience, and good on field leadership.
Also, impressive work Chief. Keep it up.
Great work Captain~ Can you do one for the Raiders!
Be nice to have that Green Peak and Red Trough from rounds 21-23 of 2009 again this year!!
I wrote in another blog that the 2014 Eels are a two-track team. If we divide our games into two blocks, Block A the four big blowout losses and Block B our other 10 games, you can see our two track nature. In Block A we're conceding 40+ a game, but in Block B were conceding on average about 14-17 per game. And if you take the Top 6 and take their median points-conceded and divide by 14 games, the Top 6 average about 15 conceded per game.
So when we are "on", which is Block B, we can defend as well as a Top 6 team on average. But when we are off, which is Block A, we concede about three times more per game than a Top 6 team.
Overall, we still have the inconsistency of previous seasons, and we still have the "when bad really bad" of previous seasons, but when we are on we play better than we have for years.
What has been interesting is that even in almost all of the games when we have been bad, we have had a point in the game where we have looked like coming back.
In the Roosters match, we scored and then blew a try-scoring opportunity that could have seen us go into half-time at 10-all. In the North Queensland game, again after working their way back into the match after a bad start, they let the Cowboys get away from them and then it all went down-hill again. The Penrith game was probably the only one we didn't really threaten, although the first 20 I was still feeling confident we'd come over them. In the most recent game against Melbourne, we looked to have gotten ourselves back into it, until that terrible penalty that swung the match.
What we do have is the ability to get back into the match. What I believe we're missing is the maturity to not push that little bit too hard, we're a little bit impatient and probably don't consolidate our position once we get within reach again. We've typically given up a try on the back of an error, and I can understand when you've fought so hard to put yourself back into the match and then your almost there and then you blow it, that such a situation would blow you mentally and combined with the energy you've expelled to get to that point, you're just shot for the rest of the match.
When you lose and never look like really winning, to me, that's a bigger problem then the blow-out scores.
We can't expect to be an expansive, attacking team and not realise there will be days when things won't go our way and we'll get a drubbing. Some interesting psychology, though, there for BA and his team to ponder.
But in the Melbourne game, and for this one me, the wife and the 2.5 year old indoctrinated daughter were at AAMI Park, I thought the key moment was not the Sandow sin-bin but when Tonga threw the ball back to the Cheaters after a Hayne intercept and broken field run. It was a bad ball by Tonga and pushing passes is not necessarily lack of maturity. But we dropped our heads after that, as if "there goes our chance" or "if only we could have ran away under the posts". As I said, we were at the ground. You could see players not getting back into position quickly.
So my question from this is not actually whether the Sandow binning or that wayward Tonga pass and missed scoring opportunity was the turning point to the end for us in that game. Rather, the question is whether the team is dropping its bundle after attacking plays don't go our way or when a defensive lapse occurs? And note here that in the first Roosters game, Hayne was crazily dejected after a final attacking play just before half time did not come off, slapping the ground like he lost his lifelong chia pet or something.
I wonder if this team takes so much pride in its attack that when the attack does not come off they can get down on themselves? I doubt pride in their defense is at stake here, otherwise they would not have allowed blowouts!!! If only they had Josh Reynold's attitude to defense - recall a game whe Reynolds threw a hissy fit when the dogs conceded a last minute try to miss by 10 seconds keeping the opposition scoreless!
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