Chiefy asked me to do something along these lines, and I couldn't resist his charms for once. I will list here under a starting point and update it as the week goes on.
Getty Images: Al Riffa is one of the favorites will make his Australian debut in the Melbourne Cup, but is heavily weighted, and can he adapt immediately to the firmer and faster Australian conditions over softer Irish grounds like his trainer and team have done for other Melbourne Cup winners?
Current Market
As of Tuesday 28/10
$6.....8.50 Al Riffa: trained in Ireland by Joesph O'Brien (son of the legendary Aidan O'Brien) who interestingly he has won the Melb Cup twice with Australian debutants (Rekindling 2017, Twilight Payment 2020); a third time lucky charm?
$6.....$6 Half Yours: winner of the Caulfield Cup and trained in Australia by the McEvoy team. I rate would him a top four
$7 ....$7.50 Valiant KIng: slashing second in the Caulfield Cup trained by Australia's leading and Great Trainer Chris Waller
$8......$9 Buckeroo: 2nd to Via Vistina in last Saturdays Cox Plate and also trained by Chris Waller
$9..... $8 Preage Nocturne
$13....$19 Maydaan .....easy in the market but James Mcdonald is the jockey
Additions from 1EE posters.
Absurde $21
Vauban $26
Flatten the curve $34
River of Stars $17
Final field of 24......
My Early Tips
Box the first 4 in that betting order with a view of getting the Trifecta. Your outlay will be $24 to achieve this for a 100% return $6 will return you 25% if you want just a small flutter.
Update: No 1: 7.30 summer time 28/10/25; Include Absurde and Vauban
MY Updated bets at this point in time are
First 4 First Alriffa no 1, Meydaan No 8, Half Yours No 14
Second.... same , 1,8,14 plus Presage Nocturne no 6, Valiant King No 24
Third ..... same,1,8,14,6, 24
Fourth ......same ,1,8,14,6, 24 plus Absurde no 9,Buckaroo no 2, Vauban no 4, River of Stars No 21
I will go away and work out the cost of that? and update it.
OK First 4 for $100 will give you a 46% return .......recommend $54 for 25%
Trifecta which includes adding the 3rd and 4th tips into a combined 3rd Placing will give you a return of 119% recommend $42 for 50%.
i have personally placed the recommended bets to put my money where my mouth is.
.........if someone would like to check my calculaions.....the prices came from Ladbrokes when I placed them.
Late Specials for the GIRLS .... No 5 Chevalier Rose and No 20 being Goodie Two Shoes
The girls in this case are /is my Wife and Dog with my Wife delighted to be called a GIRL
UPdated again 3/11/25 at 4.26pm
Some Exacta's to go with the other exotics
Boxed No's 1,2,6,14,15,21,24 7 Horses to rub 1st or 2nd in any order. I had $100 on it giving me 2.6 times the winning dividend.
Alreffa, Buckeroo, Presage Nocturne, Half Yours, More Felons, River of Stars, Valiant King
This maybe the final updatem the track is currently a soft 7.
Wait
On race day there will be 24 starters subject to late scratcings. The field will be finalised on Saturday night and you will have all your SWEEP information when you wake up Sunday Morning.
I might add that this blog is live, anyone and everyone can put their 2 bobs worth or ask any questions. This information could be completely different by the close of Saturdays Race Meetings, so DO NOT commit to anything yet.
Replies
Buckaroo looked great in the Cox pop, chased down a champion horse. Needs more distance but stormed home
Definitely in the trifectas
2 miles is the query?.....Given Waller is Rosehill based, we could call him our Parra candidate.....don't mention the fact that Waller is a Kiwi....actually think (not sure) he may live in the Hills district?
I believe he does. My dad worked with someone who had shares on a horse trained by Waller and there was a mention of him living in the Hills district.
Winston Hills...and his wife is hot
He's a very jealous man Rudolph....stay clear of things out of your depth LOL
I grew up in the shit hole known as Winston hills. Winston hills the horse is decent though. Backed him a few times and he finally got up for the win a couple weeks ago.
I'm on Absurde , did well in the Caufeild Cup to finish as close as he did, saw interference all the way up the straight, changed direction numerous times but still found the line only beaten 3 lengths .
McEvoys on board again after butchering it in last years cup, trained by Mullins who gave it a run before the cup this time in .
Can stay all day , wet or dry it doesn't matter and only carrying 53.5 kg which is a feather for him.
People might be put off by Australian standards he's an 8yo but a year younger in the northern hemisphere.
Never runs a bad race and is over the odds for mine, barring an horrendous barrier and interference he should be in the finish.
Its a rubbish field this year, the last few have been poor.
Meets the Cup favourite 1.5 kg better then he did at Caufeild , all things being even I expect him to be fighting it out.
I loaded up on Buckaroo in the Cox Plate if only Mick Dittman was on him I would have cleaned up , ran Sir Delius to .4 of a length two starts before and was way over the odds at 18/1 would have had the first 4 25 times if he lifted, devastated.
I do like Absurde.
Noted those comments Bupper, I will now have him in my exotics,
PS Backed Via Vistina in the Cox Plate.
This blog could be worthwhile with that sort of information
"would have had the first 4 25 times if he lifted, devastated"....How many bets do you chaps place on one race? Is this a valid tactic?
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