It’s War. That’s been the promotional tagline used to build up tonight’s Parramatta vs Bulldogs clash and by rights it should be a cracker with the Eels going into tonight’s match on a high against a Dogs outfit which is still down on firepower.
If you’d have looked at this contest in the mid-season, you might have been forgive for automatically putting the Dogs down for two points. The grand finalists have rep players to cover just about every position and have developed a style of play that has proven incredibly difficult to combat.
However, then the Ben Barba incident happened. It’s impossible to understate the value that Barba has to the Bulldogs. Chiming in from fullback, Barba was the main creator for the Bulldogs and made up for what was a perceived weakness in the halves. With Barba, responsibility falls back onto Josh Reynolds and Kris Keating who are going to have to play more traditional halves roles in Barba’s absence.
Of course, Barba was only able to do what he did last year, because of the dominance and skill of the Bulldogs forwards. If they run out as named, they will be down James Graham, Sam Kasiano and Frank Pritchard. That takes much of the attacking sting out of their forward pack, and while they of course have acquired Tony Williams - he still looks to be finding his feet in the Bulldogs side.
As such, the Eels have a golden opportunity to win a game that only the most optimistic of unicorns would have banked on when the draw was released. The Eels have injury problems of their own with Luke Kelly missing resulting in Junior Paulo moving to five-eighth and youngster Kelepi Tanginoa coming onto the bench.
Personally, I feel the Eels forwards now match up pretty well on the Dogs. Mitchell Allgood looks to have grown into the player we all hoped he would, Darcy Lussick is solid and Tim Mannah and Fuifui Moimoi continue to bend the opposition defences. Our second row stocks don’t scare any team, but they do a job and if Reni Maitua continue his form of last week, it means we do have a genuine attacking threat in the backrow.
However, as I commented last week, I think so much of how we perform will fall down to Chris Sandow. Any game in which Sandow fires, the Eels will be competitive, because he will not only create chances for himself but he will force defences to mark him tightly opening up space for others, most poignantly Jarryd Hayne. I’m convinced the difference between a Parramatta team where Sandow is on and off, is about eight places on the table.
What we’re all hoping for is that last week’s five-star performance is not going to be part of a string of inconsistent performances and that Stuart has been able to do what Kearney failed to do, and get Sandow to take his game up to a new level. If that happens I reckon Parramatta has enough strike-power via Sandow, Hayne and Roberts to roll the Dogs. I’m tipping Roberts in particular to have a massive game. I think he’ll come on and move into six, and he’ll have his confidence up and be highly motivated to do big things against his old club.
Yes, folks I’m back on the unicorn milk. Note, I’ve hardly had to mention Hayne. I think he’ll be the cherry on top, as long as the rest of the team live up the back 60 minutes of last week’s match. That said if they perform as they did in the first sixty in terms of their handling and ill-discipline in possession, the Bulldogs won’t give them as many second chances as the inept Warriors did.
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I heard a stat the other day saying we have not started a season 2-0 since 1999??? This is our best chance to do it, our confidence is up and as u mentioned phil with Sandow taking his game to the next level i think we can do it!
Sio out with injury replacement?
Yep, Toutai will debut on the wing. Confirmed.
Permalink Reply by Prof. Daz yesterday
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The Eels' great hope, I think, is that Dogs have not adjusted to the new obstruction rule.
Why?
- The new obstruction rule clarifies what got blurred last year by the Dogs' cheating, which is the difference between obstruction and shepard.
- Obstruction: in 2013, block and/or flat runners can neither stop in the defensive line nor run at the shoulder of a defender and initiate contact
- Shepard: in 2013, attacking players running a sweep arc must receive the ball beyond the inside shoulder of the block and/or flat runner
In 2012, the Dogs' forwards regularly stopped in the defensive line or initiated contact with defenders. And Barba ran sweep arcs, and regularly took the ball on the inside of the inside shoulder. The result was that the Dogs were always able to run quite straight, and either drag outside defenders in or inhibit inside defenders from sliding out. Barba always had more room than he should have, plus the outside backs of the Dogs could always run straighter than they otherwise would have been able to (because the Dogs flat and block runners straightened the attack illegitimately) or those outside backs ended up with 3 on 2 situations (because an outside player was dragged in or an inside players was inhibited from sliding out).
Now go watch the Dogs-Cowboys game (as I just did). The Dogs still ran their forwards with short passes (Eastwood and Jackson as the passers), and still used the sweep play (Keating's running it). But because the sweep player had to get the ball on the outside of the block, flat or decoy runner, and because the block and flat runner could not stop in the opposition defensive line or initiate contact with a defender, THE DOGS WERE USUALLY GOING SIDEWAYS NOT STRAIGHT.
Just watch the game if you don't believe me! Watch how Williams usually gets the ball (he's going diagonal). Watch how the passes to the outside by Eastwood (normally right side of field) and Jackson (normally left side of field) are finding Keating or Reynolds sweeping around, but by having to take the ball on the outside shoulder of the passer or runner, are forced to either pass quickly (because they're marked rather than benefitting from an obstruction) or sprint diagonal to gain ground. Basically, the Dogs are having trouble straightening the play.
If the Eels are lucky, Hasler will not have fixed the problem by Thursday night.
I don't think this is an issue of the Dogs missing Graham, Kasiano, Pritchard and Barba. Yes, those players are dangerous. But without the benefit of the 2012 non-policing of obstruction and shepard, even with those players on the field, the Dogs will have to adjust if they are going to straighten their running.
Fantastic insight Prof. Appreciate you re-posting the comment as I hadn't seen it in the other thread.
yeah thats mighty interesting. Prof Daz
Great insight Daz. I didn't see the Dogs v Cows game but I was wondering how the Dogs would be refereed with that obstruction rule given Moi Moi was pinged for that very thing. If the refs are consistent this will continue to cause huge problems for the Dogs imo. Nicely done Sir.
Similarly I was watching Melbourne last week to see how they would go with refs cracking down on tacklers holding the ball. Funnily enough they didn't do it often and in fact the Dragons were more guilty of it. Smith as per usual was holding the non-ball carrying arm to slow things down and this needs to be looked at as well. However I thought that overall Melbourne were cleaner in the ruck than the Dragons (I hate to say it) . Bottom line I feel if you are prepared to work hard for quick play the balls they are on offer this season. Last week against the Warriors we were much quicker too.
After watching the game again the other night, I believe we are a great chance to win 13+ if we can control the ball and complete at around 80% I think we are huge shot. If Sandows long kicking game is on and continually force the dogs to come off their own line and be disciplined I think we are a great chance. I'm not sure where the dogs points are going to come from. The Doggies opening game wasn't that bad they played fairly well and just remember the Cowboys away record of recent years! If the boys turn up and build on last weeks performance they will be competitive and have a great shot of jagging a win.
Unicorn ice cream on sale tonight. Going on the ladder the Bulldogs are only ranked 11th. Surely that makes us favourites being ranked 2nd.
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