I said in a post sometime in the last week if we lose Moses and he is replaced by Jake Arthur we don't win another game this season.Never thinking for a minute it would happen.
I think I said it in context what important players mean to some teams i.e. Reynolds for Broncs, Tommy for Manly, Mitchell for Souths, maybe Townsend for Cowboys, Hynes for Sharks, Wighton for Raiders etc
In Moses and Parra's case I think he is the one player that cannot be replaced, given alternatives.
We all know that Jake has got buckly's chance of measuring up to first grade, the difference between Cup and FG is now huge and whilst he can make a greate cut out pass in Reserve grade the FG opposition will be stamping their feet waiting for the same pass at the speed JA throws them.....his kicking game both short and long is poor and whilst he reads the defence well he is too slow. Laterally players like Cherry Evans will step past him before Jake has sent the message to his legs to move.
So what do we do, Mutt's has already prosecuted the case that Guth is a better option than JA at half, if this means call Brown half and Guth 5/8 then so be it. i.e doesn't matter what you call them!
Now who do we replace Guth with.....plenty of pluckers on here will say Perham because he looks so slick in Reserve Grade, in first grade on the wing he was defensively terrible and was stood over on the high balls.
I am going to suggest Simmonsson which will enrage some on here, YES he has been dissapointing and none more so than me because I had high expectations of him when he came here.
BUT he has played plenty of fullback and his position has been referred to in the past as a winger fullback.....he has played first grade fullback for the Raiders and did well.
Why pick him ahead of Perham, I see him as being as good as Guth under the high ball (not a great wrap) but defintely better than Perham. Defensively his main critics are for leaving his wing in our famous right side defence.....his hit ups from fullback will probably offer more than Guth does now PLUS he is the fastest player in the club on Pre Season testing, that said we have seen northing of any pace from him this year on the wing, defensively as a fullback I cannot see he him being anything but stronger than Perham.......Yes it is a gamble and I will aknowledge that but IMO he offers us something with Gutherson playing in the halves that JA is never going to be able to give us........ i.e. a chance of winning.......I will also go a step further and say of we get Marty Taupau then I would put Nuikore in the centres instead of Opecic because when we get around to the sides we have to play, Opecic as solid as he is will not be the advantage we have with Nuikure against the likes of Mitchell and the pacy centres that are around..
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We all know BA will choose JA at 7.
My rationale is rather simple:
1) Who is more dangerous playing in the halves, JA or Gutho? Very easily it's Gutho. Gutho already ball plays and kicks in general play. He also knows the structure better than anyone. He could be a real handful for opposition defences.
2) Who is a better defender in the halves, JA or Gutho? Again it's very obviously Gutho.
There is a long history of dominant FB's playing in the halves too. The precedent is well established.
As to who plays FB? There's a myriad of very decent choices and yes Simonsson would do a decent job.
No matter which way you look at it, the strongest 17 still does not include JA.
Sigh, watching this unfold is going to be excruciating.
Yes, I realise I am pissing into the wind thinking other than BA choosing JA.....but I think it needed to be said or the discussion becomes semantic.
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Grunts, thats Pops, heading off to the TCT xmas party.
on point mutt, Im in the guth to halves group too, its cour only genuine option.
What does our opposition least want us to do?
Playing Jake gives them a target and allows them to formulate a game plan using information they already know. Our structures with him in the side , his strengths his weaknesses.They know how we play when Jakes in the side , nothing changes we just do things a little slower and not as well but the game plan remains the same.
What the opposition wouldn't be able to prepare for is Gutho to 5/8 in attack but remain a fullback defensively , play Nuikore in the centres in attack but defend at 5/8 and last but not least we put our most dynamic ball runner Blake at fullback in attack defending on the wing.
You generally don't like to make changes to your attacking structure like this but our hands forced.
You have a big body in Blake attacking both sides of the ruck, with his speed and power utilised more often in an attacking sense , chiming in to the backline running varying lines he'd be a real handful.
Gutho would be sheltered from a heavy defensive load allowing him to control our attack. As captain it's on his shoulders to drag us into the top four and we need options kicking the football closer to the action.
Nuikore would help stiffen our defence allowing us to go with Carty on the bench as a point of difference.
With Mitch out we need to play with an all out attacking game plan to minimise our use of the long kick and help ease the defensive pressure.
This isn't ideal but it might be the shot in the arm to ignite our attack. Our defence will directly improve if our attack does.
This is no time for a conservative approach , Parra have always played their best football when playing fast and expansive and it's time to resurrect that philosophy.
The opposition would be caught unawares and confidence gained by the time Moses returns may just lay a platform for a premiership tilt.
Be bold not boring BA.
Only thing I don't like about Blake is his ball playing is he a good enough decision maker to throw that last pass and put it on Sivos chest running full tilt.
I also worry about defensive communication getting the numbers right either side of the ruck and defensive positioning for kicks these are really hard to replace at short notice.
If attack we can play Gutho at 6 and defensively at 1 I think that would be the preferred option.
I'd rather Blake be utilised like a traditional fullback in attack , predominately a ball runner but defending on the wing leaving the ball playing to Gutho and Brown.
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