Eels Blogs

I will preface this by saying this is a statistical look at where the Eels currently sit in the competition and that stats can tell whatever story you want them to.

However in a game like rugby league where the eye test can quite often tell a very different story to what is actually happening out on the field, we can use stats to try and break down where things are going wrong for the Eels in the 2023 season.

These stats are all inclusive of the first 10 rounds of the 2022 and 2023 NRL seasons.

Defence

The major focus on Parramatta's start to the 2023 season has been on their defence. While they are a long way removed from the worst defensive side in the competition, they are also a long way from being the best.

The six again error has skewed matches towards higher scoring outcomes given the ease at which a side can gain momentum and be difficult to stop. This was somewhat arrested last year but nevertheless it's important to keep in mind.

So far this year the Eels concede, on average 21.4 points per game. That places them eighth in the competition for average points conceded. Penrith is in first on 13 points while the Bulldogs are back in last on 25.1 points.

What does this mean? It means the Eels are an average defensive side. If you have some ball on their line they will give away roughly four tries per game. It's not ideal when you're trying to challenge for the premiership as, historically in the NRL competition, you need to be in the top four defensive sides, if not the best or second best. For reference, they are 6.4 points away from the second placed South Sydney.

So, how do the 2023 Eels compare to their grand final reaching 2022 comrades?

Well, there's virtually no difference across the first 10 rounds. The 2022 Eels conceded 21.3 points per game, placing them ninth.

The 2022 Eels though improved their defence as the season went on, dropping from 21.3 points per game to 19.7 points.

So if their defence is about the same as it was last year, what's their attack like?

Attack

So far this year, the Eels are averaging 24.6 points per game, which places them fourth in the competition, above noted attacking machines such as Penrith, Melbourne and the Roosters.

Fourth is pretty ideal when you're talking about attacking prowess. It means you're up there with the elitre in the competition when it comes to your try-scoring ability.

In 2022 they were fractionally better, sitting in third place and scoring 25.9 points per game. Don't forget though that we have an extra team in 2017 and sides have played a different number of total games due to bye rounds.

That being said, this very slight regression is almost across the board, with some sides coping an absolute pasting with the competition being much closer.

Melbourne were scoring 34.1 points per game last year, this season they're managing 20.6. Penrith were averaging 29 in 2022, this year they're averaging 22.3.

So Parramatta's drop shouldn't really be a concern, nor should it really be contributing to losses. Historically, sides that average more than 20 points per game find themselves deep into the finals.

Wins vs Losses

Often a concern for the Eels has been that they can fall apart when losing, conceding an avalanche of points with their differential copping a pounding.

That's one area they can definitively say they have improved in. Their average loss margin is just five points, second only to the Panthers who generally only lose by 2 points.

And as seems to be tradition, when the Eels play well, they tend to carve up their opponents with their average winning margin being 20 points.

It's a considerable improvement on the 2022 side who were ranked sixth. While their average winning margin has improved by a single point, their losing margin has dropped by five points when compared with 2022.

It means this Eels side has the potential to strike back at any point in a game.

However, the 2022 Eels had won six games after 10 rounds and sat sixth, whereas the 2023 Eels sit 13th with only four wins.

Essentially, in the first 10 rounds of 2022, the Eels managed to eke out a couple of wins the 2023 Eels side has lost. Like their golden point win over Melbourne in Melbourne, or their six point win over the Titans on the Gold Coast (excel did the below calculations and datawrapper likes rounding up).

Discipline

Now, I want to take you back to those defensive statistics. While their shift compared to 2022 is basically negligible, it remains concerning as a team that makes the grand final should be able to improve on their defence the following season.

So how come the Eels aren't improving?

Well, they have gone from one of the best sides when it comes to both possession and set completion to either mid table or one of the worst.

In 2022, the Eels held a season average of 52% of possession during a match which placed them in third behind the Cowboys and Panthers. They were also ranked second in the competition for completion rates with 79%. 

This season the Eels are holding 51% of possession which places them seventh but completing at a terrible 75% which places them in 14th.

It's not the be all and end all if you make errors. Souths are actually ranked 15th this season and sit in second.

But you have to be able to both defend those errors and have a game plan that allows you to compensate for less possession.

The Eels have long followed the Brad Arthur doctrine of winning the collision.

It's a tactic that is brutally effective when the Eels hold the ball and complete well, but becomes more difficult when they don't hold the ball. It becomes cyclical. They require energy to both physically dominate in attack and defence. Once gassed, the Eels can't maintain their middle cohesion and get buried down their own end.

They're lucky that Mitchell Moses often kicks them out of trouble and gives them a chance.

If you were to break down the matches they've won and compare them to the matches they've lost, you'll note that in their losses (aside from the Melbourne and Titans games) they have a very poor completion rate. However in three of those losses they scored the same number of tries as their opponents but failed to convert.

Now their wins are interesting. The Tigers dominated statistically but they have actually done that for the past season and a half. They're one of the best in moving the ball up the field and gaining good attacking opportunities but they're the worst at converting those opportunities.

Aside from their golden point win against Penrith, their completion stats are pretty dire yet they still maintain a high possession rate. One theory is that their opponents couldn't defend therefore with the Eels forcing regular set restarts or scoring points they get the ball back and can get a greater number of total sets.

So what does all this say?

Essentially, they aren't that far off their 2022 selves and by extension not too far off match winning form. As has been discussed here, an improvement in their defence will greatly contribute to this change in fortunes.

They don't need to become a side that only leaks 12 points per game, however four times this season they have scored 20 points or more and lost. For the best defensive sides in the competition, scoring 20 points should lead to a win.

Fixing their leaky defence will turn the Eels into finals and even top four contenders.