The battle of Sydney’s west is always a highly-anticipated match and this year’s encounter is no different with the Eels riding high and Penrith expecting dramatic improvement with the return of skipper Matt Moylan.

Selection Notes
Parramatta are unchanged with Peni Terepo added to the squad as likely cover for Manu Ma’u if the Eels enforcer is again suspended. Penrith have Matt Moylan back, replacing ‘The Fresh Prince’ Will Smith. Elijah Taylor is on standby for the injured Bryce Cartwright.

History
Parramatta have a 55-35-1 all-time advantage over rivals Penrith and have won 3 of the last 4 matches including 26-20 and 10-4 wins in 2015. These teams play close matches with 8 of the last 14 decided by 7 points or fewer. The Panthers have actually won 5 of the last 7 at Parramatta Stadium while five of those matches have topped 38 points. The Eels have a host of former Panthers including Michael Jennings and Michael Gordon. Semi Radradra have 4 tries in 5 games against the Panthers. Josh Mansour has two in two games against the Eels.

Form
Parramatta are arguably the form team of the premiership. After a grinding 17-4 Round 1 loss to Brisbane when Kieran Foran was a late out, the Eels have beaten North Queensland 18-16, Canterbury 20-6 and the Wests Tigers 8-0. Parramatta rank 14^th in attack but lead the NRL in defence and have played teams with a combined 10-6 record. Penrith sit at the other end of the ladder with a 1-3 record. Their sole win came against Brisbane, a dramatic 23-22 win, but their three losses have also been close ones: 8 points to Canberra, 2 points to Canterbury, 2 points toSt George Illawarra. Penrith rank 10^th in both attack and defence. Their combined opposition record is 10-5-1 with two similar opponents.

Round 5 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
Michael Gordon v Matt Moylan. Gordon has revived his career since moving to the Eels over the summer and though he is prone to the odd error has typically been a rock at the back for Parramatta in 2016. Moylan is the great hope of Penrith and the youngest skipper in the NRL. He has not played this year but should revive a stuttering Penrith attack.

Stats That Matter
Parramatta are 3-1 ATS with a 4-0 under record while Penrith are 2-2 ATS with a 2-2 over-under record. The Eels are 23-14 ATS at Parramatta Stadium since 2012, including 4-4 ATS as a favourite, 0-2 ATs when favoured by more than a converted try and 3-4 ATS off a win. The under hits at 56% with a home favourite of more than a converted try off three wins and 65% when that team has covered all three times (4-1 ATs in day games). In the opening two months of the season, home favourites off 3 wins of more than 6.5 poitns are a poor 9-17 ATS with a 15-11 under number. Penrith are 15-9 ATS under since 2012 getting more than a converted try on the road while they are 13-11 ATS in said situation. The over is 21-14 Rounds 1-8 when the home team failed to score 10 points last start while it is 42-29 over when the road team failed to score 15.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
This is an incredibly difficult game to get a handle on here. Both are defence-oriented teams and with some weather around Sydney on Sunday the under looks the play. It is hard to see the Panthers attack breaking down the Eels defence and Parramatta’s attack has hardly been scintillating with just eight tries this year. The under does tend to hit with a home favourite off three straight wins. Parramatta also look the play here but laying 6.5 points in a matchup that is typically tight is not advisable, particularly in a rare situation for the Eels.

How It’s Shaping Up
Parramatta by 8

Best Bet
Under 36.5 ($1.90)

Best Exotic
Parramatta/Under 36.5 ($2.75)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Semi Radradra ($8.00)

Other Recommended Bets
Nil