It might have been Kerry Packer who once said words to the effect: if you can get more than fifty percent right, you’ll be King of the World. Alas, there could be some Nostradamuses among us.
Will we make the finals and keep improving? What are the markers you're looking at?
For me, ll be looking at how the team play for each other and their resilience as markers of our systems and processes, and there are quite a lot of things that need to go right when it comes to finals footy.
If Mitchell Moses stays on the park, Pezet settles and gels quickly, the rookies hold their form or continue to improve within the rebuilt systems, injuries don’t strike too heavily to key players, and the club can add a bit of yardage muscle to offset the Lomax loss between now and mid-season through the middle or the outside backs, then the Eels can push for the finals. If not, things might get dire on here: with a few nuclear meltdowns. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't start crash hot, and improve in time.
Pezet, while not Dylan Brown, who offers more athletic prowess, brings a developing footy IQ and a louder on-field voice on the left edge, which could work well alongside the Fox’s leadership.
Any off-field scandals or AGM-related distractions, or further noise from the Spags crew, could also create some chaos, though they’ve got next to Buckley’s chance of getting what they want with their latest attack on the club.
If we do make the finals in Ryles’ second season, it would be an outstanding achievement, considering the club was on the brink of wooden spoons in recent years and has since been rebuilt. To rebuild a club, its systems and processes, as well as an NRL squad with a clear vision it something quite to behold.
Sportsbet odds 3/1/2026
PS: Ladies and Gentlemen, if I disappear for a few weeks, it's only because we're building and family life is a bit hectic at the moment. Nothing against anyone here, or any disagreements and banter, and I do care about the 1EE community. I'll be popping in to have a peek now and again, and back by the trials. Stay well and enjoy the festive season and holidays with loved ones.
Replies
Well those odds are encouraging
NOT
doesn't look like we will get our anniversary " script "
Good luck with the building HOE
hope you've got great tradies !!!!!
Thanks, Carls, right back at you. Super should probably erect statues of you and Macy— Our Queens—for being the few females not driven off the site into near-extinction. Marble, gold or bronze.
Actually, I’m surprised the odds now have us equal 8th with the Sharks. Not long ago we were around $26 (11th–12th), yet the price kept shortening despite losing Brown and Lomax. Seems the market is more optimistic than many on here. Some seem fairly confident of a top-eight others see us as spoon contenders because we haven't recruited some big names.
It will soon be cheaper to use actual money for constructtion...just.laminate cash to itself and build with that
Like I said if these juniors are what they are we secure a top 4 spot or fall flat between 11-14th. The team is 50/50 depending on who gets injured and 2nd year syndrome doesn't hit.
That's a good point at the end of your post. Does Ryles and the squad get 2nd year syndrome? Does the great end of the year lead to some arrogance or a sense of complacency?
I doubt it but it is something to wonder.
I'm doubting second year syndrome will hit, I think the style we play suits the strengths of each player. As long as they don't further away from system and excel at it we could be looking at a top4 spot. And like I said if the juniors do get complacent then it is red flags on recruitment side of things. But I'm confident we'll have a great year just due to Pezet and Moses combo.
I think 8th is about right. While we've lost two internationals in Lomax and Brown, our younger players will again improve under Ryles especially Ryley Smith, Kautoga, Iongi, Tuivaiti da silva, Guymer and Luca.
There's also a few dev players who I'm looking forward to getting a chance.
We're still a couple of outside backs and a middle away from competing for the top 4, but we'll get there.
I would guess that the Eels can win 70% of games when Moses is playing. If Moses can play something like 20 games that would = approximately 14 wins plus 3 byes = 34 points.
That betting market you posted is pretty ordinary (value wise). Good value is when converting the prices to percentages and getting something below 105%. That market is just above 115%. The Eels at $21 represents 4.76% of the market. Thr Broncos at $5 represents 20% of the market. The formula for converting odds to percentage is 1 ÷ odds × 100. A market with a higher percentage means the bookmaker will win more money if they lay an even book. If they manage to hold money on each option with equal payouts on each, at 115% they will profit 15% of the total hold.
slippery, you have done a few posts regarding odds and you do it well.
So can backing the Eels at $21 price now (4.76% of the market) be looked at as backing a team who those setting the markets see as a less than 5l% chance of winning? A team with a 5% chance should win about every 20 years over a long timeframe.....gulp.... Does the low volume of bets at this point, the lack of money set, mean this percentage is more a reflection of how they think/hope early money will fall? Does money this early have any brains? Broncos at $5 20% seems a realistic early evaluation but why would any punter who is not just a chronic case take this bet before a ball is kicked...like is punting now a valid tactic or a straight-up mugs game?
Sorry for all the questions, I mostly don't think about the gambling side beyond being puzzled by some punters strategies or seeming lack thereof
Before Lomax left I thought we had a good chance of making the top 4 this year. I still think the Eels will make the 8 but with loss of Lomax it makes it much harder in my opinion especially not having a decent replacement for his loss. He was very consistent for the Eels last year. Having to rely on Moses not getting injured also isn't really encouraging either especially with no strong replacement which the recruitment should have been pursuing along with a Lomax replacement. Eels will Just scrape into the 8 but if Moses gets injured they won't make the 8 at all
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