Eels Blogs

The Art Of War’s Master General Sun Tzu, believes winning a war is based on the art of deception, nous and adapting. 

“If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected ”

It's a subtle art, and more nuanced form of Darwinism in a sense: the fittest who survive are the best at adapting to changing environments and conditions. Not necessarily the biggest or strongest.

For the Eels, it’s a case of following a far simpler Arthurian formula.

None of that mumbo-jumbo nonsense.

Keep It Simple Stupid

Dylan Brown tells us what it's all about this week, in an intriguing interview. Conservative "Boring" Footy.

But, it's one that worked against the Panthers in the 17-16 win in Moses' golden point field goal. 

Getty Images: Mitchell Moses kicks the winning field goal in the 17-16 golden-point win over the Panthers (R4, 2023). 

"If you go back to that game (round four win over the Panthers), it was a very 'boring' game", Dylan lays it out.

"You feel like you didn't do much except for just tackle, tackle, tackle, which is what we're good at."

Indeed, the Eels were ultra conservative.

They had extraordinarily high completions (95%), low-risk, low errors (3-12). The offloads fell too (losing the count 10-12).

In that game, Moses had to kick a record-breaking 1100m.

It was the best the Eels have performed all year, at least defensively.

However, contrary to how Dylan felt, ironically, it was the Panthers who did more tackling not the Eels (441-361). The Eels missed more tackles than the Panthers though (23-12) according to nrl.com.

"Brad (Eels coach Brad Arthur) drains it into us: Kick to the corners and just dig up," Dylan explains.

"It's something I'm still learning."

"That's what Brad's all about: Each individual doing his job. And like I said before, playing that boring footy."

Dylan Brown 

One wonders whether some of Dylan's comments were tongue-in-cheek, or even a half-serious Freudian slip dipped in humour, given his propensity to be easygoing and go with the flow and almost contrary in nature to a highly-structured regime. Or perhaps, Dylan equates the so-called "arm-wrestle" or "Grind" to "Boring". And perhaps, Arthur wouldn't care either way.

On that night against the Panthers in round four, in my view, the Eels played with plenty of guts and courage. There was some vigour and backbone in their defence with great scrambling on-goal defence. Their attitude and mentality was on that night.

Getty Images: A dejected Eels after a demoralizing 2022 grand final loss against the Panthers.

Perhaps, it was also some form of minor redemption for last year's demoralizing loss to the Masters Of The Grind, Panthers or the beginning of it.

Brown doubled down on this "boring" grinding style.

I back our team to go against anyone when it's that kind of footy.

Dylan Brown 

"We've got a very fit team."

Though Brown is praising of that style, he felt the Eels went away from that against the Tigers in round six on Easter Monday.

"We don't have that fancy stuff. We can do that fancy stuff, but you've got to earn the right, which I feel like we didn't do (against the Tigers)."

Dylan Brown 

Here, again we hear the "earn the right" to play footy mantra; a well-worn Arthurian trope.

Getty Images: Moses with four try assists and 4/5 conversions was the difference against the Tigers and silenced the Accor crowd.

Mitchell Moses also reiterated a similar theme as Brown when talking to SEN radio 1170 on Tuesday earlier this week about the "effort" areas lacking in the Tigers game. 

We just went away from playing our (brand of) footy. We weren’t running as hard and it was like we were trying to run out of there with the win.

Mitchell Moses 

"We need to be a lot better.”

“(But) It’s always good to get a win and learn rather than getting a loss and learning the tough way.”

“We made ourselves defend a little bit too much (and) we didn’t make them work for their tries."

Indeed, Moses was correct about who did more tackling, unlike Brown's take on the Panthers' game. The Eels only had 43% possession did a heck of a lot more tackling than the Tigers (357-293). The Eels also missed more tackles (39-17).

It’s not working, yet

Whichever way you slice and dice it, at this point, our style is not really working. Not yet, at least.

Brad Arthur commented in the round 5 pressor that the Eels' attitude and effort was even better than last year for the first five rounds, despite the losses.

Still, the Eels have lost 4 of 6 close grinds this year, and won our second game after going away from our brand and just doing enough after an easy start.

Part of the issue is a glaring one. Our defence. It's a major issue. And that's a reflection of cohesion and attitude issues.

We’re mid-range in attack (8th scoring 22.17ppg) and bottom-five in defence (13th conceding 24.33ppg).

Moses said as much in the SEN radio, noting: “Their young winger (Junior Tupou) tore us to shreds”

Interestingly, though, Moses echoed what Clint Gutherson said to Fox media right after the game, on pretty good goal-line defence against the Tigers.

I thought we defended our line pretty well, considering how many points they scored.

Moses on SEN

But, it should also be pointed out that despite the Tigers playing arguably their best all year in the second half, they have the worst attack (15ppg) and worst defence in the competition (conceding 26.67ppg on average) at this point.

Indeed at times this year, we have demonstrated good resolve on our line, say against the Panthers and Roosters at times. However, overall we still have issues.

Metres in the red, on the back foot

Nrl.com stats has us as top four for run metres made in the competition, but we’re actually conceding more metres than we’re making (1758m - 1880m per game over the first six rounds). That 20% more than the same time last year.

We’re also conceding more linebreaks than we’re making (3.8 - 4.7 per game). That's 32% more than last year at this time.

Our middle ruck defence is second-worst in the competition for conceding tries (equal with the Dogs).

Ironically though, our missed tackle numbers are around the same as last year if only a whisker better ( 32.2 - 32.7 per game); poor for a few years now.

This ties into Professor Daz's valid points in his excellent round-seven preview, Are We the Muppets or Pretenders?  in relation to our conservatism, our poor attacking field position (worst of all teams), being on the back foot a lot of the time, with an over-reliance on Moses' boot. Last year, we saw a similar thing but had more opportunities and better field position in the opponents red-zone than this year.

As noted in the RLET "Parramatta, who see just 14% of their total play the balls occurring in the red zone. Parramatta is dead last in tackles inside 20 metres averaging just 21 per game. More proof to something I alluded to a few weeks ago that tackles inside 20 metres have almost no correlation with scoring points. But as a great man once said, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take and being 20 metres away from the try line certainly gives you more shots at it. If you take them."

Without Moses' four try assists (three off kicks) against the Tigers, we lose.

From 2019-now, we win 62.6%  (62/99) of games when Moses plays compared to 44.4% (4/9)  when he’s out and our scoring average goes down from 23.3 pg to 16.4 pg.

Dominant Structural Hierarchies 

This also relates to something Mahoney Reed touched upon in media interviews this week, unintentionally perhaps, joking repeatedly the clash against his old club this week is "just another game". Sure.

Mahoney admits his move to the Dogs “felt right” from the beginning and he enjoys more “freedom” and “responsibility”.

Obviously, at Parra there's a lot of boys that are very dominating football players.”.

Reed.

“You know they're they have their own right to do that and that's fine. They’re the ball runners of the team.  Obviously, you’ve got International forwards, international halfbacks, and fullbacks…”

 Obviously, it is in part an explanation for our heavy reliance on Moses coupled with other dominant ball runners Reed alludes to - and why Reed left.

“Yeah, I probably feel that probably grown up a little bit. (There’s) definitely a lot more responsibility on myself", Reed continues.

Obviously, I’ve got a bit more freedom to take the line on here.

Reed

The stats back up his claims. 

Stats-wise, Reed is on the up after leaving the Eels, whilst Hodgson is not unsurprisingly regressing at the Eels.

Reed is running and kicking lot more more than ever. Hodgson doing both less than ever, and his try assist levels are at at NRL career lowest.

Both, however are missing lots of tackles around the 5pg mark (but Harry Grant also sits around their mark). Fortunately, Hodgson’s tackle load and minutes are starting to be reduced which is prudent given his age, injury history, and the fact he takes the starting heat for Hands.

Although, Hodgson’s reduction in potency is not surprising, it's not just about father time catching up.

It's also structurally almost destined to happen under the "boring" systems we have with a strong hierarchal dominance that Reed alluded to.

The patterns of dummy half-runs also give us some clues.

This year, the Eels just like in seasons past have a very low dummy half run rate (bottom four) this year. Their best was in 2021; Reed's best year at the Eels.

Conversely, the Raiders all during Hodgson's tenure had a high rate of dummy half runs. The Dogs, too, although less than the Raiders.

"Coach Hodgson" has his hands on fitting in

So, Hodgson is starting to toe the line: and fit into our system after doing a bit more of the old Hodgson in the early rounds.

He has changed his style of play since his early games and some of the promise we saw in round one (1 try assist and 1 forced drop goal). In that game, some of his decision-making (took some control away from Moses) led to some play breakdowns when Moses wanted to kick field goals. Since then, his role is being simplified to more a distributor and playing 49-52 minutes which makes sense.

Reed too is fitting into the Dog's system, too. Jeremy Marshall-King has proven to be a very offensive and talented rake, despite being replaced by Reed.

This simpler dummy half role at the Eels also feeds into their simplified "conservative" or "boring" footy brand, which doesn’t want to wander too far off the beaten track - and avoid too many cooks. 

Arthur has shown his hand before. He prefers an efficient distributor with all the dominant playmakers in the side. Last year, Arthur was even content to give Jakob Arthur a simplified raking role in the top grade despite being a half-back in Cup.

Egos aside

So, with that “role” in mind, putting his ego aside for a structural fit - and father time - it’s almost a given we’ll almost certainly never see the best of the old confident cocky warrior Hodgson, again.

Perhaps, just in glimpses here and there. As long as he toes the line, and doesn't go off the beaten track like he did at the Raiders where he was more dominant.

It was a concern Cooper Cronk raised in the pre-season: that we had a lot of egos at our club who may be vying for control including Hodgson and he wondered how he'd fit.

Some of those answers may be beginning to unfold.

On a simplistic level, it appears Reed didn't really want to fit into our system anymore if he didn't have to and is content to be the face of the Dogs. Be more of the Man.

Fortunately, it appears Hodgson is trying to fit into our systems and doing a reasonable job, in my mind. He's putting some of his ego aside and adding more to the table than we may give him credit for.

All this has implications for other new kids on the blocks - notably Hands and Hopgood who possess ball skills.

Hands speaks glowingly about how much Josh Hodgson has helped him off-field pointing out Hodgson may have coaching aspirations. 

“Josh is really good. He’s really knowledgable of the game. And I think he wants to become a coach after … somewhere along the track. He’s always wiling to pass on knowledge."

"He’s always open to helping me through stuff. Some drills after training. It’s a blessing really to be able to work so closely with such a great hooker."

He’s (Hodgson) happy to take over a little duel (player-coach) in the middle. Saying this is what we should do, and get feedback. He’s sort of a bit of a coach out there. 

Hands 

Hands is just happy to be playing and has that humble respectful team-first mentality that is just what we need.

He also understands he's "finding his way into the team" and his place in the hierarchy.  

I just need to make sure Mitch and Dyl get ball, bring the middles onto the ball, and defend well. I’m just trying to find my rthyme and do my best.

Hands 

A simple role in line with our simple philosophy. He's also fitting in.

It’s great he’s extended until 2025. However, our structural hierarchical dominance may cause Hands to face the crossroads in the future if he seeks to become a more dominant force - like Reed wanted to. Although you get the impression their characters are quite the opposite.

Hopgood's simplified role

This also has implications for J'maine Hopgood who shows some ball-playing skills and the ability to do something with the ball.

Hopgood, leading into Round 7 as noted by nrl.com, has recorded two try assists, 15 offloads, an average of 127 running metres and laid the most tackles in his side to date (258); 

Hopgood was full of praise for Arthur this week.

“Brad’s been awesome, he’s obviously given me a good opportunity here and I’m just trying to take that with both hands".

“As you can see with how we started the season, there’s a bit of a target on our back with the boys making the grand final."

“Everyone was quick to jump on our backs after losing the first three but we were in a position in all three of those games to win."

He’s (Brad Arthur) straight up and down, tells you how it is and it’s nice to know don’t have to do anything out of the ordinary for this team, I’ve just got to do my job.

 Hopgood 

It should also be noted Hopgood hasn't recorded any more line breaks or try assists since round 2.

And after round 3, his offloads have dropped off a cliff from 9 in his first 2 games, to an average of 1.3 per game for the next four games. That was before Matterson come back into the side (R4).

Indeed, this drop in offloads, the fancy stuff, in the "boring" game plan is becoming a trend. 

Although we're still up there in the top four for offloads (second in nrl.com) they have began to drop off in recent weeks from round four - perhaps coinciding not just with the Panthers' clash but with the aim of becoming more disciplined. 

So, yes, Hopgood's role, just like is the case for Hands and Hodgson, appears to have been simplified to fit into the structure and conservative game plan.

Just like Hopgood says so. Doing a job in the middle. Nothing fancy. Nothing out of the ordinary. Minimising errors. Minimising off-offloads. Earning everything. And now he's off the bench to come on once the initial heat of the game wears off. 

Perhaps, it's also due to a few errors and missed tackles that led to opposition points. But, it's hardly surprising given his workload (most tackles in our team). He joins plenty of x-factor rep and Origin class players in that top-20 list of missed tacklers: Reed (1), Tom Gilbert (2), Hodgson (3), Apisai Koroisau (4), Harry Grant (5),Hopgood (9), Teig Wilton (10), Hudson Young (11), Cameron Munster (20).

Hopgood, like Hands was very grateful for the opportunity of playing regular first grade and are not fussed or disgruntled.

Their egos have been put aside and they're playing their roles. Team first. Nothing too fancy. And in a sense, Hodgson is also playing his part too.

As fans, we can't ask for much more than that.

Sam Walker's (The Wall Street Journal’s deputy editor, not Rooster's young gun) excellent 15-year study on what makes great champion teams revealed this common denominator - players and leaders that sacrficied for the sake of the team - above all else. Above the superstars. Above x-factor. Above great coaching. Above all.

On the flip side, you can’t have your cake and eat it too. If you stifle a player’s creativity in favour of rigid discipline and structures you need to also live with its consequences. You won’t ever see the highest potential of the individuals or the team if they hold back or hesitate. At least not for a long time, until the confidence levels or structures adapt, evolve or change for whatever reasons or circumstances.

Bottom Line 

All these jigsaw puzzles form a simpler picture.

It ties neatly into Brad Arthur’s well-trod quasi-tropes of “front-loaded effort” and “earning the right” to "play footy". Even earning the right to offload and play second phase. Conservatism and highly structured hierarchal dominance.

All this goes back to the basics: doing the effort areas and fundamentals well coupled with the Power metre-making Game on the back of our international Paulo-Gillard bookends playing as long as possible. Something Arthur has been at pains to explain over the years.

Perhaps, Arthur believes the most structured and disciplined team in the competition, able to handle the conservative foundation and strong hierarchal structure will win the grind - like the high-octane masters of grind and structure the Panthers and the Storm to a degree, Arthur’s old school ground - is the way to go.

The issue is not every team plays like the Panthers or Storm do. And Manly put the Storm to the sword last night.

Our philosophy of "earning the right to play footy" conservatism is also almost the opposite of Souths' mantra of "play footy" whenever and wherever you can, then back your defence in the case of errors or lapses.

Our strong structural hierachy is also somewhat contrary to the Roosters' culture who have a “everyone-has-a-say” mantra in the club and gives the likes of youngster Sam Walker a bit more rope and scope to play his natural expansive eyes-up non-conservative footy which will also bring the odd error and lapse. And yet still they persist with playing footy.

Some teams, such as Souths tend to be able to turn on a tap even when they haven’t earnt the right to play footy and just play eyes-up footy. In the first half the Dolphins were all over the flat Rabbits who had not earnt the right. The Dolphins probably deserved to be ahead more than 14-6. But, in the second half they belted the Dolphins into submission to win 36-14. But, they do have some firepower in the likes of Cook, Walker, Mitchell and Illias who is also finding his role. Even teams like the Sharks can throw caution to the wind. More in keeping with Sun Tzu's: “In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity; never venture, never win".

The other aspect is, we do not possess a game-breaker of the ilk of Mitchell, nor electric speed out our of dummy half or out wide (aside from our halves), so we may struggle to emulate Souths.

We also lack the high-octane consistency, hard-nosed mentality on-field of the Panthers and the yardage they get from their outside men. We lose more metres than we make, despite our so-called tough power game.

But it all still may pay off and may evolve into a more expansive style of play outside the rigid conservative structures, once the confidence in defence is forged. In a backwards way, getting to where Souths start without all their firepower and so-called x-factor (whatever that is).

A few years ago, Andrew Johns also pointed this out, when commentating on a Parra game once. He believed the Eels play well to their structures, but couldn't play outside them very well. He added great teams could do both. We're still learning to be consistent with one part of this equation.

Perhaps, Arthur also feels the team needs to return to the basics right now, to address that inconsistency and the personnel changes, rather than try to play fancy and win the easy way. Indeed, we did drop off mentally against the Tigers this week after things came to us too easily. 

In a sense, it's a return back to the boring basics and effort areas to mentally harden up and lose the inconsistency that plagued them last year and over the years. To become battle-hardened come finals time.

After all it's somewhat a reflection on his stoic tough character, with hidden fires and passion mostly kept under wraps. Also, essentially mirroring the footy board's preference for safety and conservatism: where it all starts. Up top. Front Office.

Only time will time if we get there, wherever we are going. 

Let's enjoy the ride, best we can. Boring tough footy can be inspiring if you're winning.