2016 NRL Preview Series : Parramatta Eels

Today we come to one of the biggest clubs in the competition, the Parramatta Eels, who will be looking for big improvements in 2016 after an offseason recruitment drive.2015 in review: Improvement at lastAfter two seasons anchored to the foot of the table, the Eels finally showed signs of being a competitive rugby league team again.The fact that 2015 can be considered largely a success, despite the loss of Jarryd Hayne, more squabbling on the management side, a salary cap scandal, and yet another turn on the Chris Sandow rugby league dissident roundabout, says a lot.But nine wins, a faint whiff of finals contention and some prize recruits later, and the club enters 2016 with more than just a faint pulse for the first time in years.FULL 2016 NRL PREVIEW SERIESNRL season preview: Newcastle KnightsNRL season preview: Wests TigersNRL season preview: Gold Coast TitansNRL season preview: New Zealand WarriorsOffseason story: Winning the NinesWhile the team was buoyed by the recruitment of Origin centre Michael Jennings, there was a palpable exhale from Eels fans when the team won the recent Auckland Nines.After a decade of rarely threatening to win a title, despite their status as one of the competition’s premier clubs, fans can be excused for enjoying a win in the preseason hit and giggle.It’s a stretch to suggest that the Nines success will translate to NRL success, with the tournament having as much in common with real rugby league as the Big Bash has with the Ashes. Regardless, it’s fun to win and less fun to not win, so Eels fans should enjoy that feeling.Roster management2016 Gains: Mitch Cornish, Kieran Foran, Michael Gordon, Clinton Gutherson, James Hasson, Michael Jennings, Cameron King, Kieren Moss, Beau Scott, Kelepi Tanginoa, Matthew Woods.2016 Losses: Beau Champion, Zach Dockar-Clay, Richie Fa’aoso, Will Hopoate, Darcy Lussick, Joseph Paulo, Adam Quinlan, Reece Robinson, Chris Sandow.Whew, just reading through all that is tiring. Few teams have turned over as many players as the Eels this season. Indeed, one-third of the starting team from Round 1 2015 is no longer with the club.However it is not just the quantity of the players trading places, it is the quality of the recruits that marks a potential inflection point for the club.The team has brought in three current representative players – Foran, Jennings and Scott – plus a do-nothing-wrong, goal-kicking fullback who excels at the little things, like providing support and decoy runs. So that is four top-tier players, all likely to play 80 minutes a game, and three of whom who will fill positions where the team cycled through a number of options in 2015.They have done all that without losing anyone they can’t cope without. Robinson and Hopoate will be replaced with Gordon and Jennings respectively, who are equal if not superior players. Lussick was mediocre in 2015, and while Paulo appeared in 14 games he mostly came off the bench as a halves utility – a role the team hopefully won’t need filled with Foran and Corey Norman running the show.Likely line-up1. Michael Gordon2. Semi Radradra3. Michael Jennings4. Brad Takairangi5. Ryan Morgan6. Corey Norman7. Kieran Foran8. Tim Mannah (c)9. Nathan Peats10. Junior Paulo11. Beau Scott12. Manu Ma’u13. Anthony Watmough14. Isaac De Gois15. Tepai Moeroa16. Danny Wicks17. David GowerWhile Foran and Norman will undoubtedly wear the 7 and 6 jerseys respectively, the more interesting question is which of them will occupy the left edge. Every team in the NRL plays some form of split halves, and in 2015 both Foran and Norman were stationed on the left edge.Make no mistake these are elite, talented players so it is not a question of whether they can be broadly effective on their non-preferred edge, but rather how effective they will be. Even a slight drop off in performance can hurt at this level.As the marquee recruit, it’s reasonable to expect Foran will get first crack at the left edge. Whoever does end up there will be put in a position to succeed on a left flank that features Semi Radradra and Michael Jennings, who both made my 2015 Team of the Year.Another question for the Foran-Norman partnership is which player will be the primary in-game kicker. In 2015 neither was his team’s first option with the boot, averaging only 5.5 and 6.4 kicks per game – a primary kicker often makes double that. That is not to say neither is capable of executing a solid kicking game, just that they haven’t been required to do so in recent seasons.Another area of interest is the back row, which is likely to be tweaked at various stages. As a current Origin player, Scott will likely be selected in his position of choice on the right edge, however Ma’u was among the Eels’ best players in that position in 2015.Meanwhile, Anthony Watmough battled injuries and Father Time throughout last year to put in one of his weakest seasons in years. How long will coach Brad Arthur persist with Watmough, a player he has a relationship with dating back to their time together at Manly, if Watmough struggles again? Then there is boy-mountain Tepai Moeroa, who had a mixed season starting on the left edge, but remains a critical part of the Eels future.That’s four starting calibre players for three positions, and there are more players behind them. How will Arthur balance all these fine players?Player to watch: Kieran ForanForan’s decision to leave the Sea Eagles – where he had well-established relationships with staff and teammates, an elite halfback running the show, and a hunter-killer left centre outside him – to join Parramatta, who have been a total cluster-something for several years, is an enormous gamble for him personally and the Eels organisation.Foran, along with fellow big-name recruit Jennings, will be asked to resuscitate a club that enjoys fanatical support, but that has – 2009 Hayne Plane aside – been largely an also ran for ten years, all the while enduring constant bickering within management.Is Foran ready to be the primary playmaker at a club with tortured history for those who wear the revered blue and gold No.7 jersey?Foran is an outstanding player. He runs the ball exceptionally well, indeed among regular halves only Anthony Milford made more metres per game, and he is defensively stout, missing fewer than two tackles per game, the third-best rate among regular halves.However what he doesn’t do a lot of, at least directly, is playmaking. In 2015 Foran recorded 11 try assists, six line break assists, and six line breaks – numbers that aren’t remotely in the same league as the elite playmaking halves.But the Eels need Foran to excel at playmaking – the team scored only 83 tries all season on their way to the fourth fewest points in the competition in 2015, and the departed Sandow and Robinson provided assists on 23 of those tries.Whether Foran took a back seat at the Sea Eagles because of the copious talent around him, or whether it is simply not his game to be a primary playmaker will be fascinating to see.Predicted finish: Fringe of the eightEels fans will likely feel this is a pessimistic assessment after the team finished only three wins (and a substantial improvement in for and against) outside the eight in 2015, and the team has improved significantly with the acquisitions of Foran and Jennings in particular.However the reality is that improving by three wins is tough in his salary-capped league, and the three teams immediately above them on the ladder – the Panthers, Raiders and Sea Eagles – have all improved as well via recruitment or improved health.Plus the team immediately behind them, the Warriors, just added half the New Zealand national team spine to an already strong squad.Moreover, at the time of writing there is still a salary cap investigation pending, which could see the club docked four points to start the season. If the club starts the season four points behind the competition, their chance of making the eight basically evaporates, as they would probably then require 14 or 15 wins to make the finals, which is top-four pace.The Eels will be better in 2016, and may even be very good if the new players gel quickly. However the most likely case, even if they don’t get docked points for the salary cap misdemeanours, is that they will battle on the edge of the eight for most of the season.http://www.theroar.com.au/2016/02/12/2016-nrl-preview-series-parramatta-eels/

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Replies

The French Fullback #1 February 12, 2016 at 8:39am

Most of the media have written similar things - "fringe 8" and doubt if we can get it together to make it. And they ALWAYS have Morgan in there over Gutherson! Either us Eels fans have too high expectations of top 6, maybe top 4 based on the media predictions, or we are going to give everyone a giant surprise this year with our play. Let's hope it's the latter. the 7 drought must end
Tin Tim February 12, 2016 at 8:40am

Bullocks we will make the 8.
CP February 12, 2016 at 9:31am

I believe we'll be fringe top 8 too, we have a lot if new faces in key positions and we need time to gel. The Cowboys have had a fantastic roster for years but it was only last year they finally came together. A lot of this will rest on BA on how quickly he can get the team to gel. 2017 will be our year. Let's not forget that other teams have recruited quite well too.
the Eggman February 12, 2016 at 9:48am

I guess its hard to make a prediction for a team which is basically new,some of our other players too in Mau,Edwards and even Wicks are relatively unknown to most fans while others are young and as yet it is only us Parra fans who recognize the potential of not only these players but of this team . let's hope they can hit the ground running because POTENTIALLY we have a very good team here who could easily slip into fringe top 4 not just top 8.
Xman February 12, 2016 at 10:01am

I think that is a very fair assessment and It's true all of those teams have improved. I think what it doesn't state is that teams above haven't improved and some have actually gone backwards. I am very confident this year that we will not only make the 8 but be battling for minor premiers but every fan should feel that way about their club. It all comes down to the minus 4 if that happens it changes everything
Davo 'RIP feet for hands Toutai' February 12, 2016 at 11:24am

They won't be saying fringe 8 by round 3
Nutcracker February 12, 2016 at 11:29am

I really like this article. I reckon we'll make the 8 if we don't lose the 4 points. If we lose the 4 it's going to turn into a bit of a circus.
HH - Love You Iongi Time! February 12, 2016 at 11:34am

De Gois can de Gois off out of our 17....
Mitchy February 12, 2016 at 11:38am

Its all about opinion. We all have one.
josh jones February 12, 2016 at 1:03pm

Morgan!?! Haha. No chance!