Draw

The Eels have the wood on the Novocastrians, but the Knights are showing more courage and grit in battle this year. Whether they sustain this or collapse in a heap is another thing.

Both own real estate in the bottom-half-of-the-table and will be desperate for the two points with only 3 wins to their name heading into round nine.

Moses feels the heat in the 26-16 Broncos loss on Anzac Friday Night in sultry Darwin. Getty Images

The Eels have been patchy this year, and regressed from last year at this point, but undoubtedly have potential at their best.

However, they were no match for the Broncos on Friday night, even though not much went right for the Eels.

For the Knights, there was not all that much separating them and the Cowboys last night. If it weren't for 10 minutes of Val Holmes magic and last ditch goal-line defence in the dying minutes, the Knight may have got the points.

The Knights also drew with the engimatic Manly (32-32) in R5 whom beat us in R3 (34-30). Will that be vignette of what might happen this Friday?

Against the Eels, the Knights have had quite a few long droughts.

A Four Year Drought

The Eels are on a record four-year 5-game winning roll over the Knights.

The Knights last defeated the Eels at McDonald Jones Stadium (14-28) back in R7, 2019. Four years ago.

Danny Levi caused us plenty of headaches through the middle in the Knights last win over the Eels four years ago (R7,2019) in Newcastle. Getty Images

In that game the Knights found pleny of holes through our middle and on our edges. 

Ponga caused mayhen in the Knights last win over the Eels four years ago (R7,2019) in Newcastle. Getty Images

The Knights might feel this coming Friday is their best opportunity in years.

Commbank: A 10 year drought

The Knights last tasted a win in Parramatta ten years ago (10-16, R16, 2014) Getty Images

It's been ten years since the Knights recorded a win over the Eels at Parramatta.

The Knights last win in Parramatta. Getty Images

It was back in the old Pirtek Stadium (10-16, R16, 2014). Bennett was coaching the Knights then. The days of Kenny Cramp Edwards and Norman-Sandow Show. That's how long ago it was.

No doubt, this coming Friday the Novocastrians will be looking to ambush us and reshape recent history.

And although the Eels have won  9 of the last 13 (69%) this year we're only 2 from 4 at home; mixed results so far.

Two Decades Of Blowouts or Bloody Close Battles

Over the last two decades from 2004, in the last 29 games, there’s rarely been anything in the middle between these two.

During that period games between these two have been decided by either:

• Close tussles of 1-8 point margins (16/ 29 games, at 55%), or
• Blowouts of 19-50 point margins (12/29 games at 41%)

There was only one game in that 20-year period that was somewhere in the middle.

R7, 2019, McDonald Jones Stadium, when the Eels lost 28-14. A 14-point margin. However, even that game threatened to become a blowout when the Knights led 20-8 at halftime.

Perhaps, both teams share some similarities. Both are highly structured, which shouldn't come as a surprise given O'Brien and Arthur are both graduates of the Storm school, yet without reaching the heights of their former master.

History suggests a fairly high-scoring affair, high 30s

Over that two-decade period the average score has been Eels 19.28 - 19.55, with a total score of 38.83 per game.

The Eels four-year dominance since 2019, has seen the average score of Eels  25.17 - 12.00, with a total score of 37.2 per game.

R9: Key ins and outs

The disastrous loss of RCG to a Haas-hip-drop, and the reintroduction of Ponga in the last round off the bench are significant ins and outs (assuming Ponga is fit).

Ponga started to look dangerous in his return against the Cowboys, despite the 16-18 loss (Is this a borderline hip-drop tackle?) Getty Images

Ponga started to have some nice touches against the Cowboys, as he warmed into the match off the bench. He started to look more and more dangerous as the match wore on.

RCG provides us with momentum and aggression in the middle and can play for long minutes. Now, we're left with half our bookend collection.

Defensive issues and a yardage account in the red

But even with RCG, who the Eels rely on for its "power game" in the middle along with fellow bookend, the Eels' yardage account was in the red.

Haas made 212m in 54 minutes. That's more than Junior Paulo and RCG combined for 84 minutes in total.

The Broncos backline made metres with ease at times. Farnsworth, Walsh, Oates, and Cobbo made 712m collectively. Russell, Sivo, Penisini, Gutho made 443m collectively.

Yardage off the back three is also what the Panthers do well and it underpins their success.

Unfortunately, the Eels don't make enough yardage from their back three; it's a missing ingredient.

Overall, for the season, the Eels concede more metres than they make (1509m to 1788m per game average), and the same is the case with linebreaks.

Some of this goes back to our defensive issues that still haven't been resolved.

Last year, we had those same issues. And we were the worst defensive team in the top eight and it was one reason we could not hold off the Panthers in the grand final.

The Eels missed 46 tackles against the Broncos, despite only conceding only 2 linebreaks.

The Eels middle is second-worst for conceding tries (equal with St George and the Knights heading into round 7), and this weakness was evident against the Broncos.

Hodgson only played for 31 minutes against the Broncos. Getty Images

Josh Hodgson was one key offender. He missed 5 tackles in (from 16 total tackles) in 31 minutes running for 0 metres.

Though he was far from alone. RCG also missed 5 tackles (from 12 tackles in total, even worse). Russel missed 6 tackles (from 15 tackles in total, also worse). Even Penisini, one of our better defenders out wide, missed 5 tackles (from 24 tackles).

The Eels were in tatters at 6-22 by the time Hodgson went off in the 32' minute to be replaced by Hands with possession to the Broncos hovering around the 63% mark.

The damage was already done by that time, and the game was effectively over.

The only question remaining is whether the Eels had any fight left in the second half or whether the Broncos would massacre the Eels in a blowout of Ben Hur proportion.

Fortunately, the Eels fought back, which is one of the few silver linings in a disastrous match.

With Hands taking over we won the next 50 minutes we won 10-4 to make the game appear closer than it really was - in the 26-16 loss.

It remains to be seen if Arthur changes his game plan with whom has his hands on the starting role to handle the intense battle at the onset.

But it was only last week, in the Dogs' pressor, that Arthur scoffed at suggestions that Hands would be starting any time soon - pointing to his inexperience and handful of NRL games and the fact his "job" was to learn off Hodgson. 

Bottom Line

The Eels have more points in them than the Knights (22.4 ppg v 20.9 ppg), and should win, but haven't hit their straps.

However, the Eels' defence leaks more than the Knights (22 ppg v 21.5 ppg) along with effort areas that have been their Achilles' heel.

If the Eels complete at 67% like they did against the Broncos last Friday night, where they ended up on the wrong side of possession, in a missed-tackle-and-error-a-thon, the Knights could cause an upset, ending some long winters.

We're likely to see a total score in the high 30s, weather pending, and a close tussle is likely unless one team is off-tilt.

It all comes down to whether the Eels can stay switched on for long enough, or whether they give the Knights too much latitude leaving too many windows open.