After an ugly, limping-badly to the finish-line win against the fired-up Tigers, we are warm favourites to account for the Dogs ( $1.52 to $2.55 on Sportsbet).
Statistically, we had no right to win that game. 43% possession. 1,963m to our 1,491m. 15-8 offloads in the Tiger favour. 6-4 linebreaks to the Tigers. And 39-17 missed tackles against us. If it weren't for Moses' kicking game and a few left-edge touches, we would have not have got the chocolates and be equal last.
Maybe, in a way, that's a good sign. However, our poor defence, our lapses, and our inability to land killer instinct blows after getting away to a great early lead is a significant concern.
Against the Dogs, like the Tigers, we have a great recent record.
We have won 11 of the last 14 (78.6%) over the last eight years from 2016.
It’s second best - to our dominating record over the Tigers. And we saw how well that went yesterday on Easter Monday.
Commbank should help. Here, we have won 3 of the last 4 against the Dogs, only losing here once against the Dogs - four years ago (R23, 2019, 12-6.).
But, there’s every likelihood we’ll face a desperate, wounded bulldog looking for atonement after being belted by Souths 50-16.
Souths dismantled and steamrolled the understrength Dogs quickly after the Dogs got to an early 6-0 lead up until the 17’; threatening a boil over. Twenty-two minutes later, Souths had cut them to shreds with an avalanche of points to be ahead 26-6 by the 39’ minute. The game was effectively over by then well before the Preston sin-binning in the 62nd minute.
Despite last week’s massacre, the Dogs seemed to have shown signs of improvement at times this year after an influx of high-quality buys to herald the new Ciraldo-Gould epoch.
Incoming Firepower
Additionally, after a horror injury toll, the Dogs should see the welcome return of some of their big names in Kikau, Tevita Pangai Junior, Raymond Faitala Mariner and Okunbor. A fair bit of firepower.
The loss of the Fox, however, until around R15 is a big blow to their penetration; and the Burton-Fox show.
Let's see how Team Lists pan out in about 30 minutes.
In recent years, the cycle between these two teams has changed somewhat, and it will be interesting to see what that brings to the table in this clash.
Changing cycles: Close to Blowouts
From 2021, over the last few years and last 4 games, Eels v Dogs games have produced big blowout scores (margins between 22-36 points). The average score in this period is 28.5 - 15.0 (13.5 margin). They were all in our favour except for one 30 point margin loss 34-4 last year (R14,2022). We’ve also seen larger collective total scores of 42, 46, 38, and 48 points (at an average of 43.50).
It has changed dramatically from the the five years preceding that, between between 2016-2020, where most of the games (7 of 9) were close and decided by 1-8 point margins. The average score 16.33 - 11.33 (average 5 point margin); that’s less than half the margin of the current cycle.
Recent history suggests there is every chance we’ll see a fairly high-scoring game in total over 40 points, with a margin probably larger than 8 points.
And we don't need to be reminded of how the Dogs' carved us up 34-4 last year mid-year (R14, Accor).
Reed: "Just another game"
Reed Mahoney grinned and joked with Channel 9's Danny Wiedler that the Eels game was "Just another game". Sure.
“When I first came to the joint on day one of pre-season, it felt like I was in the right place. I’m super proud to be here and to be a Bulldog.” Reed told Foxsport.
“I feel like I’ve probably grown up a little bit. There’s definitely a lot more responsibility on myself."
“At Parra, there are a lot of boys that are very dominating football players.They’re the ball runners of the team, and then you’ve got international forwards, international halves and an international fullback.
“For me (the biggest change is) probably running the ball a bit more and things like that."
"I’ve got a bit more freedom to take the line on here."
"I’m still balancing when to run and when not to run with balancing having to make a few tackles a game. It’s something that I’m still building and still getting right. It’s all part of the journey.”
Former team-mate for over five years Mitch Moses praised Reed
“He’s been playing outstanding footy. He’s obviously the captain over there and he’s really taken that with both hands,” the Eels playmaker said.
“I won’t be talking with him this week. It looks like he’s loving his footy at the moment, so good on him.”
Perhaps for Reed, it will be a bit of a nose up at his old joint that didn't give him the responsibility and freedom he has now.
Either way, expect the 2023-improved Dogs with more grunt up front to be revved up. For redemption.
The question is how will we respond to yesterday's performance which was flatter and a downer on the preceding intense five tough weeks?
We will need to improve on yesterday's performance, dramatically, to outlast the Dogs.
Comments
Nice write-up here, HOE.
The stats / recent history against the Dogs is a bit of a confidence booster.
Personally though, very concerned about this one, Dogs always rise to the occasion against us and with Mahoney & Perham, there is a bit of extra motivation for them.
If we don't turn up with the mentality & respect of the opposition we had for the Panthers / Roosters games, they have every chance to ambush us again.
A big test of where we are mentally as a team / club.
I think we win well this week. 13 plus win to the eels
I hope we flogg them to make amends for last but I am not so confident. I think bulldogs may pull our pants down. Especially after no changes from last week's dibacol.
What's your vibe reading between the lines of Reed's media comments this week?
At the Dogs, I have more "responsibility" and "freedom to take the line on". I feel "at the right place". "At Parra...there are a lot of dominating players."
Thinking out loud.
It's not just about Reed.
Pre-season Cronk pointed out a lot of dominant egos exist at the Eels. He wondered how the old veteran Hodgson would fit into that, considering Hodgson's natural wily game and tendency to take control of the ruck in his halcyon Raiders' day.
With the heavily structured and dominant Eels' playmakers Reed and Cronk alluded to, assuming there is truth to it, means Hodgson's natural game (and some of his potency and former strengths) will need to be curtailed.
Hodgson could be the Benjamin Button to Reed.
It's not just about his age, it's about fitting into the Eels' structures (and egos).
And it's highly unlikely, given our current structures and his age, we'll ever see anywhere near the best of Hodgson again.
I think there are also medium-to-longer term implication for Hands. Perhaps, even the natural but fledgling ball-playing skills of Hopgood: the new guy on the block.
They are our arch-rivals and will be up for the game no doubt, especially when they got battered against South Sydney. It's always been a theme since I can remember if a team gets battered the week before they come out firing.
If the eels dish out the same defensive effort of previous weeks, they'll lose convincingly.
Kikau has been named, TPJ is also back but the Fox is out.
We will have to be WAY better than we were on Monday. Reed has been playing out if his skin and he'll have a big piont to prove against us on Sunday as well.
On that basis Hodgson should have a bigger point to prove than Mahoney. Everyone knows Reed was our first choice hooked who decided to walk. Hodgson would want to prove that he is an upgrade - or at least that is what should happen.
I'd be directing all traffic at Reed , he's leading the comp for missed tackles , he obviously can't keep up with the workload of being in a shitty team.
I read Kikaus a good chance of returning. We must be the unluckiest club in the comp when it comes to playing teams the week their big stars return from a period out of the game.
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