The 8th-placed Raiders are favourites to inflict a consecutive loss to the 9th-placed Mosesless Eels at Canberra and see them slide further down the ladder.
Both teams lost disappointingly last week. And both head coaches expressed their dissatisfaction. Both should be looking for a significant bounce-back.
But history at GIO and a five-year history of a Mosesless Eels strongly favours the street-fighting-styled home side.
Last round, the Eels lost 17-16 by a last-minute Sezer field goal. The Eels seemed set to take control of the game leading 14-6 at the 63rd-minute mark, only to be overrun by the Tigers in the last 15 minutes.
Somehow, the Eels managed to lose despite having their usual winning formula of Commbank, high possession (53%-47%), high run metres ( 1,836m to 1,627m), and high offloading count (13-8). The dumb plays and higher error count (13-10) were telling, ultimately.
The Eels came crashing down to earth in a tight one-point loss against Giant-Killing Tigers - now with two big scalps in successive weeks.
The Raiders lost 36-22 against the enigmatic, shaky Sharks. Likewise, the Raiders were leading 18-0 at the 27th-minute mark and seemed set for a huge win. However, the Sharks won the next 57 minutes 36-4 to blast the Raiders out of the water. Unlike the Eels, the Raiders had less possession (51%-49%), and lost the run metre battle (making 1405m to the Sharks' 1612m).
No Moses, No Cigars
Once again the Eels' poor record without Moses continues to haunt the Eels.
Since 2019, the Eels have only won 40% without Moses (6/15) versus 63% with Moses (72/115).
The GIO nightmare
And it doesn't get any easier at GIO, Canberra.
Despite, the Eels having won 2 of the last 3 at GIO against the Raiders since 2021, those two wins were with Moses. The loss was, yes, you guessed it: without Moses.
Before that, the Eels only managed one win in twenty years at this ground (1/ 14 at 7%) since 2001. A cold nightmare.
The Eels' recent 4.5 year winning cycle v Raiders has another but ...
Since 2019, the Eels have won 5 from 7 against the Raiders.
However, you guessed it: all five wins were with Moses, and both losses were without him.
The rudder-less, error-riddled Eels are up against it this week. Can they defy the odds?
From nrl.com: There aren't too many changes to the teams from last week. The Raiders make just one change: Ata Mariota comes into the starting side for Zac Hosking (injury, concussion). Simi Sasagi comes onto the bench for his first game in Raiders colours. Elliott Whitehead remains sidelined with a calf injury. The Eels make one change to the starting 13 with Bailey Simonsson coming in for Morgan Harper making way while Bryce Cartwright remains sidelined by a rib injury. Wiremu Greig is back in the 17 for his first NRL game of 2024 after three games in NSW Cup. Brendan Hands has been relegated to the reserves list.
Sportsbet has the Raiders favourites at $1.71 to $2.15 at the time this was written, just after team lists Tuesday.
Comments
If we are a chance it's all hands on deck everyone do there job nothing more nothing less the formula for us is there if we do this and minimise our errors it's not a overly complicated route for success but that's who we are a grinding team but it requires all hands on deck for it to come to fruition.
Good read. Dylbags getting caught on the 4th and 5th tackle doesn't help. We got belted in the kick metres didn't help. Unless Gutho steps up on 1 leg. We are screwed.
If we put in a soft uninterested powder puff performance that Parramatta is renowned for with a nice chocked miss goal at the end ....the score could be anything....these days Im used to it all.