It's the tenth Easter Monday clash between these two. This time round on April Fool's Day, the Eels host the Tigers with both full of confidence as last start winners.
But the news of Moses' foot injury that requires surgery has put a real spanner in the works for the Eels which alters the entire landscape of the game.
Recent History
Unsurprisingly, the Eels have dominated the Tigers in recent times, winning 9 of the last 10 against the incumbent two-peat spooners.
The Eels have also won 3 of the last 4 Easter Monday clashes (5/9 overall). However, ther last two have been very tight one-and-six-point affairs at one a piece (Eels winning 28-22, 2023; Tigers winning 21-20, 2022).
Eels: CommBank Specialists
Morever, the Eels have been Commbank specialists in recent times and poor outside. The Eels have won 9 of the last 11 (82%) at Commbank, but 5 from 11 (45%) outside this ground during the same period (from R4, 2023).
Gutherson (Ragnar lodbrok), the second-longest serving fullback in the Eels' history celebrates the Eels nail-bitter 28-24 win over the Eagles, yesterday, R3.
Last round, Multicultural Round, which entered the fast-approaching Lunar Eclipse, was probably best summed up by the Manly Parramatta clash. An unpredictable, split-personality rollercoaster with plenty of shocks and horrors. Manly shot off to a 14-0 lead after 12 minutes looking like world-beaters, before the Eels won the next 47 minutes 28-4 taking control of possession, before Manly staged a mini-comeback late in the game. But the Eels held on, 28-24, in a nailbiter.
Meanwhile, bottom-dwelling Dogs bashed the fast-drowning Titans 32-0. The Roosters skinned, diced and deep-fried the once-were-premiership-threatening-three-weeks-ago Rabbits 48-6. Put it down to the footy gods howling under an eclipse. Then, multi-spoon-winning Tigers shocked the highly-rated Sharks 32-6: an Api-Day for them. Put it down to the footy gods howling to the oncoming eclipse.
Harper's (left wing) left edge along with debutant Blaize Tulagi struggled early on against Manly, in R3, and helped them to a 0-14 lead after 12 minutes.
The Eels were gritty, and overall their defence was desperate enough and scrambled well, the left-edge vulnerabilities were evident. This is how Manly shot off to a 14-0 lead, won the linebreaks 6-4, and made more ground per set (around 40m-35m). The Eels' offloading second-phase game (16-5 offloads) was a highlight along with a five-star performance from both halves.
It is likely we will see Maiko Sivo return to his left-wing throne, this week.
Maiko Sivo scored a double in last year's Easter Monday win over the Tigers, 28-22 (R6). Sivo has scored 41 tries in 47 games at Commbank since its opening in 2019. However, he has not scored at Commbank since mid-last year (R13), and over the last four there to recorded his driest spell ever. Currently, Sivo has the third-highest try-scoring career strike rate of 85% (88/104) in Eels’ history - with Semi Radradra at 87% (82/94) and Mitchell Wallace at 86.6% (58/67) above him. Before his last four dry games Sivo was at 88%, - even higher than the legendary Semi Radradra.
If the Eels were the NRL's Harlem Globetrotters in round three, Api Koroisau was a mini-Stephen Curry.
Api's wizardry was impressive. The Tigers even look happy. But, with a record of 2 wins from their last 15 games, for how long? Or are we seeing a Benji-era resurgence? Nevertheless, the Tigers were impressive and are forming a nice blend of youth and experience.
Since 2019, there is almost the polar opposite results when Moses plays or doesn't. We win 62.9% of games when he plays (with a +4.7 points differential) and only 42.9% without him (with a -2.7 points differential). That's a net difference of +7.4 points.
Sportbet had the Eels' as heavy favourites at $1.24 to $4.10, before the news of Moses' injury . Now, the Eels are at a far less certain $1.45 to $2.78 and Brad Arthur has a potentially season turning decision to make regarding who comes in the halves with Brown. Will it be his usual go-to-man Asi, Blaize, Saunders or something left field?
Arthur went bold and chose Blaize at six to partner Dylan at seven.
The progression of Bookies' prices.
$1.24 to $4.10 Before Moses' injury news
$1.45 to $2.78 After the Moses' injury news
$1.49 to $2.64 After team lists were announced
Comments
Since 2019, almost the polar opposite results happen when Moses plays or doesn't. We win 62.9% of games when he plays (+4.7 points differential) but only 42.9% without him ( -2.7 points differential): a net difference of +7.4 points.
Sportsbet had the Eels as heavy favourites at $1.24 to $4.10, before the news of Moses' injury. Then, it immediately went to $1.45 to $2.78 after the news. Brad Arthur has a potentially turning decision to make who comes in the halves with Brown. Will it be his usual go-to-man Asi, Blaize, Saunders or something left field? I'd probably prefer either Saunders or Asi.