The Eels are desperate for a bounce-back win after being Tago-ed in the Panthers' loss, and to honor RCG's 200th NRL game. They have also won 3 of the last 4 against Manly.
However, the high-flying Silvertails have two heavyweight scalps, Souths and the Roosters, and are shooting for three straight wins and look motivated to atone for last year.
It has been two years (since R6, 2022) since they won three-straight and seventeen years since they started a season 3-0. That was back in 2007 when they came second, losing the Grand finals to the Storm (34-8) then won the title the following year inflicting revenge on the Storm in the 2008 grand final (inflicting revenge on the Storm 40-0).
Manly made the 2007 and 2008 grand finals | Getty Images
Recent history with these two suggests a few things.
High Scoring, Ground Dependent: 80% at Commbank, 20% outside
For one, the Eels have had the better of proceedings winning 3 of the past 4.
However, since 2019, the Eels and Manly have won five games a piece (a 50% win ratio each). It's not a coin flip, though. It follows a pattern. Who wins generally follows if the Eels play at Commbank or outside it.
When at Commbank, the Eels play Manly at Commbank have generally won (4 of 5, 80%).
When outside Commbank, the Eagles have prevailed (4 of 5, 80%), and the Eels leak almost 35 points per game.
It's also highly likely to be high-scoring. Over the last 5 years, since 2019, the average total score has been almost 50 points per game (48.3 ppg).
It's likely to be unpredictable with plot twists and turns: it could be a nail-bitter or a blowout. The leaky edge defences of both, especially the Eels, probably means we'll see plenty of action and perhaps plenty of twists and turns.
The Turbo Factor
There is also the Turbo factor. The stats tell the tale and align with everyone's eye test. A Turbo-less Manly is almost the polar opposite in both attack and defence.
However, it is important to note that the Eels' only wins against Turbo-charged-Manly, from 2019, has been at home.
Omens
History suggests, the Eels are a confidence-based team that need a good start to the season to make the finals.
Over the last 14 years, the Eels have only reached the finals when they win at least two of the first three games.
How the Eels recover from last week's loss after giving so much of themselves, but still not being good enough, could be telling.
A dejected Morgan Harper after the R2 loss | Getty Images
A Day Of Milestones
It will be a day when both teams honor milestones. One will be left disappointed. But both will hang onto hope for better times ahead passing the shadows of 2023.
Sportsbet has the Eels as home-ground favourites at $1.85 to $2.00.
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