In the Battle of the West this Friday night, the Panther are hot favorites to bounce back from two recent knock-down losses when they host the Eels ($1.38 to $3.06) at fortress BlueBet.
However, the Eels will be quietly confident. It's the Eels that have proven the biggest thorn to the Panthers of all clubs since the Panthers' rise in 2020, despite the Panthers belting the Eels when it counts the most.
A thorn in their backside
From 2020, the Panthers have been dominating the NRL world (winning 89/106 games at 84%).
It's reflective of the triple-title-peating Panthers predatory culture since 2020 over the last four years.
But, during this time, it's the Eels that have the best record against them of any club (with 5 wins, Storm 4, Cowboys 2, Souths 2, West Tigers 2, Sharks 1, Brisbane 1).
The Panthers also have an imposing recent record at home. Since late 2019 (R19) the Panthers have won 38 from 43 (88.4%) at home.
They have won 10 from the last 11 (90.1%, since R1, 2023) at a bone-rattling 31.5 - 11.8 average.
Once again, their only loss at home during this time in the last year, was to the Eels late last year (18-32, R26, 2023
Storm keep Panthers to zip, again
Dylan Edwards and Nathan Cleary look in in dismay during the tight 8-0 loss the the Storm in Melbourne last week | Getty
In the last round, the Panthers lost a tight affair to the Storm, 0-8 in an error-riddled game (Storm had 16 errors, Penrith 12).
Oddly enough, over the last 12 years (since R5, 2013), the Storm are the only team to have kept the Panthers scoreless and it was on three occasions (0-8 last week; 0-16 on R22, 2022; 0-20 on R13,2015). Historical stats sometimes have an inexplicably, bizzare sense of symmetry.
The Eels celebrate with their players'-player-of-the-match Bryce Cartwright's who had a try double in the their impressive 28-8 win over the Dogs last week at Commbank | Getty
In contrast, the Eels had a solid win over the Dogs 28-8. The highlight was the Eels' agressive physicality and control over the match, despite a stuttering attack for most of the game that didn't see them take full advantage of overwhelming possession and field position in the red zone. Also, a handful of late-match errors (dropped balls by Pensini and Hopgood with both not watching the ball) saw the Dogs score two late tries.
However, It begs a few questions. What if the Dogs had more opportunities in the Eels' red-zone? Has the Eels' red-zone vulnerability and ability to defend their errors been addressed during the off-season?
This Friday night will be the Eels' first real litmus test.
Motivated to hit-back
The wounded Panthers' pride should see them highly-motivated this Friday night to avoid three-straight losses, which last happened over four years ago.
The Panthers have lost the last two games (Storm 0-8 last week, World Club Challenge 2024 12-16).
The last time the Panthers lost three-straight was R22-R24, 2019. Three Blue Moons ago.
An Eel's win would be in rarified air: It's been far longer than once in a blue moon
The Eels have won the last two-straight against the Panthers. But a three-peat is rare. Cue the start of 2002.
R1, 2002, a huge 64-4 win: The last time the Eels' defeated the Panthers for three-straight.
Brian Smith, the Eels' then coach, in that R1, 2002 demolition of the Panthers. He would last another four years at the helm, before being replaced by Jason Taylor who played half in this game.
The last time the Eels have won three-straight against them was over 22 years ago (R1, 2002, 64-6), when Luke Burt set a game-record for most points. Nathan Cleary was four then and all-female cheerleaders were the norm. 17 Blue Moons ago.
Also, the Eels won the last game at BlueBet against the Panthers (R26, 2023) but have not won two-straight there in over 16 years (R8,2008), which happened just before a blue moon. 13 blue moons have past since then.
The Bottom Line
Eels' fans will be hoping that their squad's team-bonding-focused, longer, 16-week-or-so off-season with renewed focus on a more physical and dominating defence - a redemption for last year's "embarrassing" aches - counts for something. There were plenty of positives signs to draw from the round one win, and Moses' appears set to play despite his groin strain. Yet, only time will tell how far the Eels will step up.
This Friday night, we all know the Panthers are likely to prevail. But if the Eels can bring their agressive A-game, defend their line and errors, take advantage of their second-phase skills, they can upset the game's apex predator.
Comments
Some stats: over at the Rugby League Eeye test, he calculated that EVERY team in Round 1 had fewer runs per metre than would be expected form their field position. But the Eels were the worst for fewer metres ran than expected (note Melbourne were a close third worst in their upset of Penrith, and Cronulla a close 5th worst in their upset of the Warriors). So, not making as many meters as field position would imply was not strongly correlated with losing. I wonder why? So we head to nrl.com stats. In the post-contact metres stat, the Storm were ranked 1st and the Eels 3rd. In possession, the Eels 1st and Storm 3rd. Maybe if you hold the ball and make lots of metres after contact, not making as many metres before contact is cancelled out? Note also: the Eels were 5th best for missed tackles, and 2nd best for ineffective tackles, and made the fewest errors and fewest handling erros.
Maybe, play a clean and disciplined game, where you offload alot and make many metres post contact, and miss few tackles and make few errors, and you might just win, even if does not look like you are the greatest running and passing game on earth?
We have managed to get up for big games against Penrith before after playing poorly the week before and even losing the week before. I think the players look forward to games against rivals like Penrith that can affect performance the week before.
I am not to worried about eels not racking up a big score against bulldogs. To beat Penrith you don't have be to flashy with the ball. You need to control possession and field position frustrating them as they are used to dominating.
As for defence and not defending errors, the game was pretty much over so the urgency wasn't there. I expect a much better defensive effort against the panthers as seen in last few games against them where we kept them well below their season average for points scored except the GF
The apex predator is definitely not just vulnerable but weakened.
I mentioned a few months ago Spencer Leniu would be their most significant loss and watching the Storm game confirmed that. Penrith have been grinding their opponents into the ground with sustained pressure. When Leota came off a few minutes after JFH there was a definite shift in momentum. Melbourne became more comfortable and the Panthers started scrambling a bit. Having the best bench prop in the game was a big part of their success
Penrith have also lost 2 tall centres ithe last couple seasons. Now that they won't be so dominant throughout the whole game teams with tall timber out wide will have more opportunities for aerial attacks
I still think they'll go OK but they're finally back to the pack
Thanks, NOS. Way too kind, buddy. And great question. History shows all great cycles end, and suggests the Panthers are up against doing a 4-peat.
Other than the Saints’ record-breaking 11-peat-title reign (1956-1966), there has never been more than a 3-peat since 1929 (Souths 1925-29); about a century ago. But all that was under unlimited tackles, pre-1967. It's never been done in the modern limited-tackle game.
However, there is one thing in the Panthers' favor, statistically, at least. With a winning percentage around 85% (2020-2023), the Panthers have had the most dominant four-year run in the modern game's history since unlimited tackles was scraped in 1967 over 55 years ago.
If any team can do it, they might be "The One".
PS: Unsurprisingly, the Storm have the second most dominant-runs followed by the Roosters, then Souths.
HOE is anyone doing 3,2,1 for each game as usual? Haven't seen anything. Snake told me he wants to organise and run it.
Haha, Electric Eel. You had me going. Snakey's lol has given the game away. Good one, mate.
LOL
Hey EE, thanks buddy. It would be fantastic if Snake hosts the 3,2,1 blogs! Or you even? Great idea!
LB does a lot of the heavy lifting on the site with his regular blogs. And there is only a very small group (4 of us) of us doing these rotating previews that hopefully everyone isn't too bored with. I'd love more join the club and contribute. It's time consuming though.
HOE, Snake has had six months off and he seems refreshed. He seems really passionate about doing this, so I think he is your man. Go for it Snake and good for you standing up and taking this up.
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