After a disappointing 26-24 loss to the Titans in Magic Round, and the loss of Moses for R11 to concussion protocols, desperate times are near for the 13th-placed Eels.
The 9th-placed Raiders start favorites ($1.65 to $2.25) and are gathering some steam with 4-straight wins defeating the Broncos, Saints, Dolphins and Dogs. Eels' fans would be envious; struggling to get 2-straight.
4 years ago, back in 2019
Are we seeing the re-emergence of the Raiders as a greater force to be reckoned with and a finals-worthy team? It's hard to tell, but history suggests the Raiders might be a top-half team in potential.
The last time the Raiders won 4-straight in the regular season was 2019 when they made the grand final (losing to the Roosters); and seven years (2016) since they won 5-straight.
Fans enjoying the Eels feasting on the raiders 40-4 in Finals' Week 2 last year.
And Raiders wouldn't have forgotten the 40-4 drubbing by the Eels at Commbank in finals week two to eliminate them from the race. Surely, they'll be after revenge served in a cold Canberra dish.
GIO Stadium Revenge: 23 years
Over the last two years (2021-22) the Eels have won the last 2 straight at GIO.
Can we win three straight at this ground for the first time in twenty-three years since 2000?
GIO Stadium used to be a ground where Baba Yaga helped these Vikings bury Eels' corpses for twenty years. Between 2001-2019 the Eels won only 1 from 14 (7%) attempts.
Two Types of Results
Over the last four years since 2019, there have been mainly two types of results when these two meet.
19-36 point margin blowouts (3/7 43%) with margins of 19,25, 36.
1-8 point close encounter (4/7; 57%) with scores of 1,2,6,8.
Which one will we see?
High-scoring affair more likely than not
There is a decent probability of a high-scoring affair, too. 5 of the last 7 (71%) have seen collective scores of 44-49 points. 2 of the last 7 (29%) have been lower scoring affairs 19-22 points.
Recent 2023 form and the 25' minute Pap factor
The biggest plus in the loss against the Titans was the form of Dylan Brown ably supported by Gutherson, Matterson and Cartwright. True to form all four Queensland-based teams won their Suncorp games and the Eels continued their poor Magic Round form. The difference between the Titans and the Eels proved to be an intercept try off a Gutho pass, Gutho's sin binning where two tries were scored and Mitchell Moses' goal-kicking. The Titans were also up for the game, and probably had one of their best performances of the year.
The Raiders have been in better form, but like the Eels have the tendency to fall asleep at the wheel when things go their way - not playing with killer instinct.
The Raiders held a 22-6 until the 25' minute against the Dogs in Magic Round (R10), before the Dogs came back (right after Josh Papali'i is replaced by Emre Guler around the 24'), and might have been excused for thinking this will be a walk-over. But, the Dogs kept coming back and eventually the Raiders pulled through 34-30.
The week before something similar happened around the same time the Raiders held a 18-0 lead over the Dolphins (R9) until the 25' minute mark (right after Josh Papali'i is replaced by Emre Guler around the 24'), before the Dolphins came back. Eventually, the Raiders just pipped them in Golden Point 31-30; almost snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Mind you, coming back and competing is the Way Of the Fins.
Bottom Line
The loss of Moses, and the Eels' inability to gather momentum in 2023, and the Raiders' recent form tilts the game in the Raiders favour.
But it's desperate times for the Eels and really close to a must win.
The Eels have only made the finals twice in their NRL history after being as low as 13th after round ten - but never the top-four. In 2006 and 2009 the Eels were 14th and bottom three after round ten (with 2 wins and 3 wins at this point, respectively). But, in both years they sneaked into eighth and made the finals. In 2006 the Eels sneaked in with 12 wins, 12 losses for the season. In 2009, they sneaked in with 12 wins, 11 losses, 1 draw (only to lose the grand final to the Storm who were stripped for cheating the cap).
Can they do it again, for only the third time?
Comments
HOE Thanks for the write-up mate. After watching Rabbits games and Panthers game tonight I honestly don't see us as being in the same class as these two teams. Some of the others are playing really well. Parra is tantalizing us with close upsets which suggest we are legitimate competitors. I think the same old same old story around our defense will continue to be an issue again. We can throw in some good sessions but simply are not consistent enough . I notice a lot of teams are introducing shapes as part of their attack. These shapes are threatening and difficult to defend against..We have to be dragged into trying to adapt to new ways of playing that other teams are introducing into their games.
I hope we can produce some magic in this game to keep the flame burning.
Very good article here. Tbh I can't see us winning with our two best players out in RCG and Moses; I am
not confident at all and fear a Raider beat up tbh. They will went some blood for last yrs semi debacle.
Excellent blog. I just don't know which Parramatta team will turn up. If the coach goes for the same team as the Newcastle game minus Dunster. We will win. Same team as titians not so sure. It's certainly never boring being a Parramatta fan.
Nice write up, HOE.
This game is very concerning. Without Moses, in the Canberra night conditions, Raiders wanting revenge for the finals... it's all pointing to the green machine.
We might need one of those 'verse Panthers' style defensive efforts this week.
Hopefully the boys find that little extra we know they're capable of.
Do we win?
Raiders will want to give us some stick at GIO after last year; and probably try to bash us.
Our best chance is to get off to a flyer and score a few tries early to give ourselves a chance and lead at half-time.
If Raiders take the lead early and score a few to get to 12 or 16-0, it's basically game over.
We don't seem likely to be able to handle scoreboard pressure (with Moses let alone with JA).
The Raiders left edge attack is equal worst in the competition (with the Tigers for scoring tries up to R10), but they'll be licking their lips with JA and Dunster on that edge (and potentially Davey).
It's almost a given they'll score there, and target our right edge like the Tigers and Titans did.
We were already vulnerable with Moses there. Now, we're even weaker. Our inside men are really going to have to work harder to help the edges more, and not expose them as badly as they have at times.
To have a chance to win this we're going to need to scramble and tackle like men possessed by devilish footy gods.