Draw

And so it all begins. To kick-off, the Eels host their oldest rival at CommBank.

The Eels will start favorites and have had the wood on the Dogs for the last 8 seasons.

Since 2016, the Eels have won the last three-straight and the 13 of the last 16 games (81%) against the Dogs. But during this time, the Dogs have generally been poor bottom-half dwellers  - not having made the finals since 2016.

Blowouts and Tight Affairs

Since 2011, over the last 14 years and last 26 games, most games between these two fall into two categories: grinding, tight encounters decided by 8-point margins or less (10 of 26 games, 38%) or 20-point plus blowouts (13 of 26 games, 50%). There have only been three games decided by 10-16 point margins (3 of 26 games, 12%). 

In recent times since 2021, the last six-games straight have been blowouts decided by margins of 22-points or more with one teams scoring 30 points or more. It's probably not surprising considering both teams have a tendency to leak points and capsize when things go pear shaped.

The Parramatta Eels have played the Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs more than any other club (154 games) - and the overall ledger still remains  71-78 in the Dogs' favour.

Historical Omens

If history counts for anything, it bodes well for the Eels in this round 1 clash. 

The Eels have won every round 1 home game against the Dogs (1974, 2008, 2020) except one (1958). Conversely, the Eels have lost every round 1 away game against the Dogs (1958, 1982, 1984, 2004) - even during the Eels' 80s glory years. 

Also, the Eels have not lost to the Dogs at home for over 4 years - since the 6-12 loss at CommBank, in R23, 2019.

Both have plenty to prove in 2024

Most pundits have written both off. The bookmakers foresee both as also-rans, making up the numbers: the Eels missing the eight, again (9th-10th, like last year, at $23 with Sportbet) against an improved Dogs outift (up from 15th to 12th at $41 with Sportbet).

Fast Starts Matter 

The confidence-based Eels need to avoid a debilitating 2023-like start to the season (1 win from the first 5),  and take advantage of a reasonable early draw that sees 5 of their first 7 games at home (including R7 at TIO v Dolphins).

Fast starts to the season seem to matter for Parramatta. Over the last 14 seasons since 2009, the Eels have only made the finals when they have won at least 2 of their first 3 games.

The Eels will try to dominate the middle and start fast. The Underdogs will look to unleash hell and ambush the Eels much they did on Black Monday, in R14, 2022, when they slaughtered the Eels 34-4. A night when the Fox scored a hat trick and everything went right for the Dogs.

It will be an intriguing war between these bitter foes that will have long-suffering fans on the edge.