Ladies and gentlemen,
Let me know if I've got something wrong, and I'll update it. If this is useful I can do more of these as it doesn't take long as it's been set up already. If it's useless, I'll keep it to myself as it gives me an idea how the money might have flowed so I'm not blowing bubbles out of my backside.
Top 30 for 2026
I've left out estimated salaries.
| 1. | Mitchell Moses |
| 2. | Junior Paulo |
| 3. | Will Penisini |
| 4. | Ryan Matterson |
| 5. | J’maine Hopgood |
| 6. | Jack Williams |
| 7. | Bailey Simonsson |
| 8. | Jonah Pezet |
| 9. | Dylan Walker |
| 10. | Isaiah Iongi |
| 11. | Josh Addo-Carr |
| 12. | Tallyn Da Silva |
| 13. | Kelma Tuilagi |
| 14. | Jack de Belin |
| 15. | Ryley Smith |
| 16. | Sean Russell |
| 17. | Charlie Guymer |
| 18. | Kitione Kautoga |
| 19. | Luca Moretti |
| 20. | Matt Doorey |
| 21. | Jordan Samrani |
| 22. | Joash Papalii |
| 23. | Sam Tuivaiti |
| 24. | Richard Penisini |
| 25. | Ronald Volkman |
| 26. | Toni Mataele |
| 27. | |
| 28. | |
| 29. | |
| 30. |
Four spots left.
| Development (TBC) |
| Jezaiah Funa-luta |
| Saxon Pryke (?) |
| William Latu |
| Lorenzo Talataina (?) |
| Te Hurinui Twidle (?) |
Where the money went?
Some ballpark guestimates. The exactly figures are almost certainly different, so we might have more or less left over to spend. But it's all based on a true story...
| Player Losses 2025 | ||
| 1. | Dylan Brown (Knights) | 900,000 |
| 2. | Zac Lomax (released) | 650,000 |
| 3. | Shaun Lane (retired) | 500,000 |
| 4. | Brendan Hands (Toulouse, was on a loan | 200,000 |
| deal from July 2025, Toulouse) | ||
| so minimal get back. | ||
| 5. | Joe Ofahengaue (Leigh, mid-April 2025) | 250,000 |
| Paid 6/12 months of 2025 contract | ||
| 6. | Bryce Cartwright (released 17 June 2025) | 250,000 |
| Paid 8.5/12 months of 2025 contract | ||
| 7. | Wiremu Greig (Townsville Blackhawks) | 250,000 |
| 8. | Dean Hawkins (released, Super League) | 250,000 |
| 9. | Haze Dunster (released) | 150,000 |
| Sub-Total Estimated | 3,400,000 | |
| Add increase in cap for 26' | 150,000 | |
| Total | 3,550,000 | |
| Player Gains 2026 | ||
| And Extra Costs* | ||
| 1. | Jack De Belin | 450,000 |
| 2. | Jonah Pezet | 450,000 |
| 3. | Upgraded Ryley Smith to an NRL contract | 350,000 |
| (from Development contract) | ||
| 4. | Dylan Walker (Warriors, late March) | 250,000* |
| Only paid 6/12 months of '25 contract | ||
| 5. | Tallyn Da Silva (Wests, end June) | 250,000* |
| Only paid 5/12 months of 25' contract. | ||
| 6. | Upgrade Fox (via CO, likely extra) | 100,000* |
| 7. | Allow some upgrades to the likes of | 200,000* |
| Sam Tuivaiti, Luca Moretti, Luca Moretti, | ||
| Joash Papalii, Kitione Kautoga, Iongi etc | ||
| Upgrades/ ratchet clauses could | ||
| be more than estimated. | ||
| Total Estimated | 2,050,000 | |
| Remaining Left | 1,500,000 | |
| Four Spots Left | ||
| In Top 30 | ||
| 28 spots to be confirmed before R1, TLT | ||
| All to be confirmed by Jun 30th | ||
| 8. | A Keaon Koloamatangi Type | 800,000 |
| 9. | A Brian Kelly Type | 420,000 |
| 10. | Base Player/ Mid-Season Purchase | 140,000 |
| 11. | Base Player/ Mid-Season Purchase | 140,000 |
| Sub-Total Estimates | 1,500,000 | |
| Left over | 0 |
Bottom Line
It is likely we have enough for one to two good-quality recruits, soonish or later before June 30th, depending on how much powder we want to leave dry for any mid-season purchases and if any deals can get over the line. I'm not convinced Keaon is worth 900K-$1m and it would put him probably at no.2 or no.3 most expensive player in our roster.
Replies
HFK, Thanks for putting some numbers forward and 'testing' the 'theory'. Kudos, mate.
You're right there's a huge difference. I actually think RCG was on more than $650K; which strengthens your argument.
I put this together on a spreadsheet a while ago on the 2025 cap. Just guesstimates. It shows there's a lot more to it.
2025 CAP
Where did Gutho's, Sivo's, RCG's money go?
Key Top-30 Cap Losses and Gains
If you look a little closer it also shows why the argument we're overpaying our juniors is a bit of a stretch for the 2025 cap.
It's not about getting the 'contract' numbers right (the speculation part). It's about getting all the pieces of the chessboard together first and working within the limitations and doing thought experiments like you have.
The key to understanding this stuff isn't to only look at who has left and extrapolate the remaining cap space from there. The reason this doesn't paint an accurate picture is because existing players (especially young ones) likely have cap increases every year. In the case of our club, we signed or re-signed a dozen players after round one this year. Most likely is that their extensions didn't kick in until 2026, and if each one only got a $100k upgrade, that's $1.2M worth of salary cap gone. If they averaged $200k extra, that's $2.4M accounted for. One caveat is that we only cleared Lomax's cap space very recently, and since then the only re-signings are JAC and Iongi. Some of the spare cap space will have gone to them. If they were heavily front loaded it might well be all of it, though I doubt it. Expect more re-signings, that will chew up some spare cap space, plus we are evidently keeping some aside for Kelly.
In any case, to see whether we are getting value out of our squad, you need to look at the squad we have. Is it as good as the average NRL squad? If so, we are getting average value and everyone at the club is doing their job.
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