Ladies and gentlemen,
Let me know if I've got something wrong, and I'll update it. If this is useful I can do more of these as it doesn't take long as it's been set up already. If it's useless, I'll keep it to myself as it gives me an idea how the money might have flowed so I'm not blowing bubbles out of my backside.
Top 30 for 2026
I've left out estimated salaries.
| 1. | Mitchell Moses |
| 2. | Junior Paulo |
| 3. | Will Penisini |
| 4. | Ryan Matterson |
| 5. | J’maine Hopgood |
| 6. | Jack Williams |
| 7. | Bailey Simonsson |
| 8. | Jonah Pezet |
| 9. | Dylan Walker |
| 10. | Isaiah Iongi |
| 11. | Josh Addo-Carr |
| 12. | Tallyn Da Silva |
| 13. | Kelma Tuilagi |
| 14. | Jack de Belin |
| 15. | Ryley Smith |
| 16. | Sean Russell |
| 17. | Charlie Guymer |
| 18. | Kitione Kautoga |
| 19. | Luca Moretti |
| 20. | Matt Doorey |
| 21. | Jordan Samrani |
| 22. | Joash Papalii |
| 23. | Sam Tuivaiti |
| 24. | Richard Penisini |
| 25. | Ronald Volkman |
| 26. | Toni Mataele |
| 27. | |
| 28. | |
| 29. | |
| 30. |
Four spots left.
| Development (TBC) |
| Jezaiah Funa-luta |
| Saxon Pryke (?) |
| William Latu |
| Lorenzo Talataina (?) |
| Te Hurinui Twidle (?) |
Where the money went?
Some ballpark guestimates. The exactly figures are almost certainly different, so we might have more or less left over to spend. But it's all based on a true story...
| Player Losses 2025 | ||
| 1. | Dylan Brown (Knights) | 900,000 |
| 2. | Zac Lomax (released) | 650,000 |
| 3. | Shaun Lane (retired) | 500,000 |
| 4. | Brendan Hands (Toulouse, was on a loan | 200,000 |
| deal from July 2025, Toulouse) | ||
| so minimal get back. | ||
| 5. | Joe Ofahengaue (Leigh, mid-April 2025) | 250,000 |
| Paid 6/12 months of 2025 contract | ||
| 6. | Bryce Cartwright (released 17 June 2025) | 250,000 |
| Paid 8.5/12 months of 2025 contract | ||
| 7. | Wiremu Greig (Townsville Blackhawks) | 250,000 |
| 8. | Dean Hawkins (released, Super League) | 250,000 |
| 9. | Haze Dunster (released) | 150,000 |
| Sub-Total Estimated | 3,400,000 | |
| Add increase in cap for 26' | 150,000 | |
| Total | 3,550,000 | |
| Player Gains 2026 | ||
| And Extra Costs* | ||
| 1. | Jack De Belin | 450,000 |
| 2. | Jonah Pezet | 450,000 |
| 3. | Upgraded Ryley Smith to an NRL contract | 350,000 |
| (from Development contract) | ||
| 4. | Dylan Walker (Warriors, late March) | 250,000* |
| Only paid 6/12 months of '25 contract | ||
| 5. | Tallyn Da Silva (Wests, end June) | 250,000* |
| Only paid 5/12 months of 25' contract. | ||
| 6. | Upgrade Fox (via CO, likely extra) | 100,000* |
| 7. | Allow some upgrades to the likes of | 200,000* |
| Sam Tuivaiti, Luca Moretti, Luca Moretti, | ||
| Joash Papalii, Kitione Kautoga, Iongi etc | ||
| Upgrades/ ratchet clauses could | ||
| be more than estimated. | ||
| Total Estimated | 2,050,000 | |
| Remaining Left | 1,500,000 | |
| Four Spots Left | ||
| In Top 30 | ||
| 28 spots to be confirmed before R1, TLT | ||
| All to be confirmed by Jun 30th | ||
| 8. | A Keaon Koloamatangi Type | 800,000 |
| 9. | A Brian Kelly Type | 420,000 |
| 10. | Base Player/ Mid-Season Purchase | 140,000 |
| 11. | Base Player/ Mid-Season Purchase | 140,000 |
| Sub-Total Estimates | 1,500,000 | |
| Left over | 0 |
Bottom Line
It is likely we have enough for one to two good-quality recruits, soonish or later before June 30th, depending on how much powder we want to leave dry for any mid-season purchases and if any deals can get over the line. I'm not convinced Keaon is worth 900K-$1m and it would put him probably at no.2 or no.3 most expensive player in our roster.
Replies
LB, What you start to see is some speculation such as we have millions to spare is nonsense. Unless, Brown was on $1.5m, Lomax on $1.5m, Lane on a $1m, TDS was cheap, we don't upgrade players and Ryley gets a $1 NRL contract (loves Trump). Then, yes, maybe we have those millions in a war chest.
Mate we can speculate all we want. Bottom line is we'll never know given the archaic non disclosure around contracts. It's all too secret when other people have their contract salaries readily available via the internet.
The players on cap contracts should be available just as any old mate SGT in the Army or Police Force etc etc contract amounts are online for anyone interested. Even the POTUS salary is available.
What we don't need to know is their final taxable income.
Badger. It's not all speculation. There are known facts. We must spend a min 97.5% of the cap. There are 30 players that need to fit. We know min. base pay. We know if a player is upgraded from development to an NRL contract it goes on our cap. We know if a player leaves after R6 (Joe O to take up an immediate long-term deal with Leigh until 2028) they are released from their contract (don't play for 6 months) to play elsewhere immediately. That's not speculation.
We can speculate on the contract sums, sure, or whether freight was paid. Is Moses getting $1.2m or $1.4m? Or say for example what you said: "we are probably over paying some of our rookie players". That would also mean we'd need to underpay upstream as we still need to fit all the numbers within known constraints. It's maths. You're got to balance the ledger somewhere. It's not an elastic band that stretches to a narrative. We're not finding the Lost City of Atlantis.
With minimum salary around $140K, I think we are probably over paying some of our rookie players based on potentially half a decent season. Then again, we seem to not be buying anyone of note so we do need to spend the minimum mandatory required amount of the cap somehow.
If we're overpaying our rookies it means we're underpaying somewhere else. It's just maths. You have to balance the ledger within known fixed contraints. If we are, as you suggest, it means we probably don't have the cap space to chase Kaeon who is very costly.
If we're overpaying our rookies it means we're underpaying somewhere else.
not really, it just means we are super light in our roster with too many players not to standard. Being forced to spend the whole cap can get clubs in strife
This^, we are paying too much for too many who are not yet worth it and may never be.
Though we are also not extending them for long, we have a lot off-contract in 2026 and 2027. Easy to get out of in the future so low risk.
Yeah, LB, correct. It's going to interesting to see what the 2027 squad looks like. Lots of decisions.
PS: Personally, I don't think all our rookies like Iongi, Smith, or Big Sam are crap.
Exactly.
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