Below is an extract from a property newsletter that I pay for. In the past 18 months or so there has been much discussion about the Australian property market crashing, a couple of private contacts on this site have talked about it and made enquiries to me about it. Obviously we have had a correction but it has been nothing like a crash and our markets have started the next phase which is one of the reasons I am putting this blog out there. 

Take note of it if you like and everyone will no doubt have their own social perspective of the evils and such of property and who can and can't afford it. My personal advice is too look to anything with a land base (house and land) and low level town houses and units (two story's max). Sydney people would be well aware of the dangers that have emerged in high rise.

Here is the extraction!

‘In the current environment, Australia appears as a safe harbor — both comfortably close and far from home.’
These words come from the CEO of Juwai.com — a Chinese website that lists overseas property.
He was commentating on the surge in interest in luxury Australian real estate from wealthy investors in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong tops the list for world’s most expensive real estate. The average price of a small apartment is over US$1.2 million.
And by the way, Hong Kong has now officially surpassed New York City as the place with the highest concentration of super wealthy people.
Juwai.com — the largest property portal for Chinese investors — recently reported that enquiries from Hong Kongers wanting to purchase Australian houses has increased 50-fold over the last three months.
Most of these enquiries focus on Sydney and Melbourne.

Why? think of the current protests.

It’s by far the most significant and widely publicised protest we’ve seen in the region since the pro-democratic demonstrations in Tiananmen Square over 30 years ago.

Of course, as you know by now history repeats, or rhymes, in set time frames.
In financial markets, it’s easier to observe this because we can chart both time and price.

Take a major event in the market and count forward, 30, 60, 90, or 120 degrees — in a period of days, weeks, or years — and markets are likely to turn or pause on (or close to) those counts.

We can do the same with historical events.

The Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 lasted nearly eight weeks.
Today, we’re several months into the current Chinese/Hong Kong unrest and it shows no sign of stopping.
The consequence's are predictable. More Asian money will flow into Australian property.
Cross boarder investment is always a major feature of the real estate cycle.

In 1990, the banking crisis in Tokyo led to a flood of investment from Japanese buyers into Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesian real estate markets.
Money also fled to the ‘safety’ of US real estate when Thailand and its neighbours experienced their banking crisis in 1997 — especially to cities such as New York and LA.
Sometimes policymakers do this this quite deliberately.

In 2008, former Aussie PM Kevin Rudd removed restrictions on foreign purchasers to stop our property market crashing. Real estate values boomed by 25%.
30 years ago, after the Tiananmen Square massacre, Bob Hawke opened the gates and allowed 40,000 Chinese students to stay in Australia.

Will current PM Scott Morrison be facing a similar situation?
There are currently over 100,000 Australian’s living in Hong Kong. They own about 600 of the nation’s firms.
Most of the expatriates are Chinese Australians (or Hong Kong Australians).

Hong Kong has no private land ownership.
It was set up on the right premise. Britain acquired the territory from China on a lease. Residents paid 5% of the property value per annum to reside there.
The costs of administration were taken from the rent. That meant that taxes on productivity were low — and as such the economy thrived. The people of Hong Kong had more to spend in their pockets.
Of course, the system has broken down over the years. Less of the rent is collected — and property speculation is rife.

Hong Kong are the most levered nation in the world, with the most expensive real estate in the world.

Our property looks cheap in comparison. Furthermore, it’s on a freehold title.

Australia has restrictions on overseas buyers purchasing established homes — and there are a range of higher taxes for those that do choose to invest.
However, demand is increasing, and non-bank lenders are out in force offering alternative streams of finance.

Here’s the forecast: This potential wave of money could inflate our property markets and carry us into an almighty real estate boom into 2026. You’re well placed to take advantage of it.

 

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                  • Hi Pops,

                    Climate change is a pretty un-cool subject, and unfortunately I don't think there are enough dramatic tangibles yet for many people or governments like the US under Trump to prioritise it. People losing jobs is very tangible. Home prices are very tangible. Sea levels in 30-500 years isn't as much.

                    We react not proact.

                    But, I am not sure scientists are lying about their climate change readings, such as this, do you?

                    3582640751?profile=RESIZE_710x

                    It would be a bit like denying the correlation between smoking and lung cancer - to deny our exponential population growth and energy needs are not related to the unnatural exponential growth in CO2.

                    Marlboro Man smoking used to be cooler for  than most of the population. You could smoke in cafes indoors. In hospitals. It was cool.

                    People used to say scientists were wrong about smoking being unhealthy and it was just scare mongering. It took about 50 years and generational change before people started to believe it.

                    3582779737?profile=RESIZE_710x

                    One thing that John Englander points out (video below) is every time scientists have predicted or modelled predicted sea level rises and temperature changes they have always been wrong and always underestimated what eventuated...

                    3582840987?profile=RESIZE_930x

                    The bottom line is : it's essentially too late, now.

                    We can't avoid or change the course of global warming anymore (though we are unnaturally speeding it up, Russian roulette).

                    We can only now deal with what will come. And the full results of what will come are still not fully known.

                    We know sea levels are and will rise. That temperatures are rising as a result of our exponential CO2 footprint. That ocean pH levels are becoming more acidic (bad for many marine life) and stuff like that, but ...who knows what else will arise. 

                    The earth is a wholistic land-sea mass that we have affected the balance of. It's a karma we can't stop anymore. We can't even live without bees and ants Pops...No bees, no ants we die. Even with a bag of cash and enjoying a cigar.

                    Some European countries already have some solutions in place for rising sea levels.

                    Eventually, we'll need to deal with a large portion of Australia having new inland seas and lakes that are now land.

                    As usual I would expect it will happen once we see some people's homes being underwater once enough of the glaciers of Antarctica and the Greenland have melted. Who knows when? 30 years, 50 years, 500 years. No one knows.

                    The problem is exponential growth tends to catch up to us faster than we imagined. As it does in property.

                    It's something many of us won't need to deal with; maybe, our great great grandkids.

                    Until then if you smoke, enjoy it while it lasts.

                    And I'm bloody nervous about tonight!

                     

                    • TAD, Poppa and co. have a point - we can't really see the real tangible effects of "global warming" - the myth - in Australia, yet. Not fully. I can't even see the grass growing. 

                      Let me suggest something ridiculous.

                      The bulk of Australia's property market might be hugely affected by our future inland sea and coastal flooding. Underwater homes and "no wake" signs aren't a great selling point.

                      Fortunately, we won't "see" this or need to worry about it, for 30, 50, 100 or even 500 years away. Who knows.

                      Maybe by then, our homes will be floating in the sky or we'll be in Mars, or have built impregnable trillion-dollar sea walls around the coastal perimeter, and thousands of ships that spray stuff into the clouds to reflect the sun's heat. Who knows.

                      Gees, our sea-wall could even be more impressive than the Great Wall Of China or Trump's Mexican wall.


                      3595133045?profile=RESIZE_710x
                      At that point in time, those 'silly' kids, looney lefties, and rambling scientists won't look so idiotic then. Great-grandpa, "why didn't you do more?' they will be asked. It's a long story, my dear boy. We aren't a team, basically. 

                      So, right now, right here, why would many governments and businesses spend billions, perhaps trillions, of expense, solving rising sea levels, global warming and our reliance on CO2 producing energy sources? 

                      Losing jobs, losing money, losing profit, losing votes, changing people's lifestyle right now. It's not profitable, it's a vote killer, and it's at an unknown point in the future when we'll be dead. Notwithstanding, that some European countries already are ahead of the game.

                      Not sure, where this current prudent economic house-keeping comes into this equation: other than maintaining the "status quo" as long, and as elegantly, as possible.

                      Economics and business will eventually be forced to re-act to the situation.

                      But by then, Parramatta would have won another premiership or two. I hope.

                       

                      3595095506?profile=RESIZE_710x

                      We're only 1%. We can blame China, the US and the rest of the world - later.

                       

                    • Thanks mate. LOL, TAD. You too.

                      You're open-minded and have good intentions towards everyone. I respect and admire that. 

                      Actually, I have not spoken about the loss to anyone since last night - in life. Don't want to. My wife won't ask me. She knows I will just nod and be silent LOL. 

                    • ’But, I am not sure scientists are lying about their climate change readings, such as this, do you?’

                      Short answer - um yes.

                      No believe in climate change, no money from the government honey. 

                      And that my friend is how this game works.

                    • Fortunately, we won't "see" this or need to worry about it, for 30, 50, 100 or even 500 years away. Who knows.’

                      Thats what their banking on - you not being here to figure out the scam.

                  • The history channel! Fark me pops.

                    Kids are always indoctrinated into the conventional societal doctrine of the time. It's called socialization, we learn cultural norms that allow us to fit in and interact with other in our society. If you think your any different or escaped this your kidding yourself. And we continue to be influenced by changing norms   all our lives.

                    Case in point : Mental health, particularly mens mental health. The amount of blokes I know now who admit to struggling with things is great. Many men aren't scared to talk about whats happening in there lives because societal norms have made it more acceptable. 

                • Super - these BRAINWASHED kids are out there yelling, shouting, stomping their feet and ADDING to CO2 emmissions.

                  How the feck did you come to the conclusion "They are doing something."

                  What exactly have these brainwashed kids actually done except make NOISE?

                  OOPS, my bad - that is what the Climate Change experts DO all the time, make noise but achieve nothing apart from taxing us into povertry.

                  Idealists - Pfft!

                  Now if you wish to go through the history of weather cycles around the world over the years it has been accurately recorded you may get one hell of a shock.

                  The fact that man is contributing negatively on the environment is without question, however to say we have impacted (negatively) on the climate has been nothing more than a mponey grab from UN and governments world wide.

                  • Your so much more eloquent than me!

                    • Poppa (Oh great demented one) we both forgot one very important point here - Super was educated under the same system as the protesting youth.

                      Mr Ripley (of Ripley's Believe it or Not) sums it up best.

                      "The truth is not what you see, nor is it what you hear. The truth is what you believe."

                      Super believes what his educators induced into his mind.

                      Real people know BS when they come across it.

                    • So true and they are totally blind to the forces at large....God help our children because Super won't!

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