Below is an extract from a property newsletter that I pay for. In the past 18 months or so there has been much discussion about the Australian property market crashing, a couple of private contacts on this site have talked about it and made enquiries to me about it. Obviously we have had a correction but it has been nothing like a crash and our markets have started the next phase which is one of the reasons I am putting this blog out there. 

Take note of it if you like and everyone will no doubt have their own social perspective of the evils and such of property and who can and can't afford it. My personal advice is too look to anything with a land base (house and land) and low level town houses and units (two story's max). Sydney people would be well aware of the dangers that have emerged in high rise.

Here is the extraction!

‘In the current environment, Australia appears as a safe harbor — both comfortably close and far from home.’
These words come from the CEO of Juwai.com — a Chinese website that lists overseas property.
He was commentating on the surge in interest in luxury Australian real estate from wealthy investors in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong tops the list for world’s most expensive real estate. The average price of a small apartment is over US$1.2 million.
And by the way, Hong Kong has now officially surpassed New York City as the place with the highest concentration of super wealthy people.
Juwai.com — the largest property portal for Chinese investors — recently reported that enquiries from Hong Kongers wanting to purchase Australian houses has increased 50-fold over the last three months.
Most of these enquiries focus on Sydney and Melbourne.

Why? think of the current protests.

It’s by far the most significant and widely publicised protest we’ve seen in the region since the pro-democratic demonstrations in Tiananmen Square over 30 years ago.

Of course, as you know by now history repeats, or rhymes, in set time frames.
In financial markets, it’s easier to observe this because we can chart both time and price.

Take a major event in the market and count forward, 30, 60, 90, or 120 degrees — in a period of days, weeks, or years — and markets are likely to turn or pause on (or close to) those counts.

We can do the same with historical events.

The Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 lasted nearly eight weeks.
Today, we’re several months into the current Chinese/Hong Kong unrest and it shows no sign of stopping.
The consequence's are predictable. More Asian money will flow into Australian property.
Cross boarder investment is always a major feature of the real estate cycle.

In 1990, the banking crisis in Tokyo led to a flood of investment from Japanese buyers into Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesian real estate markets.
Money also fled to the ‘safety’ of US real estate when Thailand and its neighbours experienced their banking crisis in 1997 — especially to cities such as New York and LA.
Sometimes policymakers do this this quite deliberately.

In 2008, former Aussie PM Kevin Rudd removed restrictions on foreign purchasers to stop our property market crashing. Real estate values boomed by 25%.
30 years ago, after the Tiananmen Square massacre, Bob Hawke opened the gates and allowed 40,000 Chinese students to stay in Australia.

Will current PM Scott Morrison be facing a similar situation?
There are currently over 100,000 Australian’s living in Hong Kong. They own about 600 of the nation’s firms.
Most of the expatriates are Chinese Australians (or Hong Kong Australians).

Hong Kong has no private land ownership.
It was set up on the right premise. Britain acquired the territory from China on a lease. Residents paid 5% of the property value per annum to reside there.
The costs of administration were taken from the rent. That meant that taxes on productivity were low — and as such the economy thrived. The people of Hong Kong had more to spend in their pockets.
Of course, the system has broken down over the years. Less of the rent is collected — and property speculation is rife.

Hong Kong are the most levered nation in the world, with the most expensive real estate in the world.

Our property looks cheap in comparison. Furthermore, it’s on a freehold title.

Australia has restrictions on overseas buyers purchasing established homes — and there are a range of higher taxes for those that do choose to invest.
However, demand is increasing, and non-bank lenders are out in force offering alternative streams of finance.

Here’s the forecast: This potential wave of money could inflate our property markets and carry us into an almighty real estate boom into 2026. You’re well placed to take advantage of it.

 

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Replies

                • I used to play it with Son of Slugg he beat me every time then he started kindergarten and lost interest. 

            • Your right Milky I got the wrong era, that one Sluggy was on underneath was my limit....but I think the general git of what I was implying was received.

              Someone was telling me that on talk back radio this morning a guy rang in about his son wanting to join the protest. He said fine but tomorrow morning, no TV, No Ipads, No Phones and no electronic games. If you can go without you can join the protest.....the Kid gave up at an hour and half and decided to go to school instead.

              • Poppa, Some of those students undoubtedly have no idea about the facts of Climate change and are treating it with all the seriousness of a rock concert. 

                Idealists on both sides damage the debate. But school children and idealists don't detract from the central issue:

                Is the Australian Government doing enough to reduce the effects of Climate change?

                Over 99% of scientists who study this issue say ' No'.

                Recently the government announced  a ban on the export of all plastics. Short term, this will cost the economy, however, the government stated that long term for every $1 spent $2 will be created in jobs in new technologies.  This is true of most environmental protections but for short term economic and  political reasons the Government refuses to act. 

                I fear for future generations if we don't act.

                • We can't stop this train.

                  We need to roll with it now

                  Pls. Watch this Royal Institute vid.

                  https://youtu.be/MvqY2NcBWI8

                  It will change your mindset. It certainly did mine

                   

                  • We can't stop it but if we make appropriate changes we can lessen the bad consequences 

                • using your example Elvis, lets look at the fake news:

                  "Over 99% of scientists who study this issue say ' No'."

                  That is beautiful rhetoric Elvis but also factless

                  Plastics and the like fall into the category of good housekeeping, I am all for good house keeping,whether is clean coal, nuclear or even renewables that are cost effective.

                  The reality is that is not the case, in a previous post you said the government has known for 20 years and done little or nothing.....what would you have done if you had the ability to go back in time and make a decision?

                  Finally Elvis you accept what you have been told in the non scientific example of "mankind being able to fix this problem" sorry but science doesn't have the answer!

                  Just remember climate change as a science is true and existing....undeniable......but science has no answers and this is why we have to be careful because we are "throwing the baby out with the bathwater" 

                  Thus perpetuating the greatest MYTH in human history!

                   

                  • Poppa, What facts or science do you have to show this is 'fake news', factless or beautiful rhetoric?  A quick search will show that those facts to be accurate

                    eg https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/    

                    "Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals  show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree*: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position."

                    There are many sources of climate change that humans have very little control over eg animal emmissions and geological occurances such as volcanic erruptions but we should reduce the sources were we can to make a positive contribution.  These substances, carbon, plastics have a big effect on the temperatures on land and sea.  The science says either make the changes now or suffer the consequences later.  These changes develop new technoligies and jobs eg the PM recently claimed that for every $1 loss or spent in the banning the export of plastics from Australia will, over time, create $2 in jobs. 

                    You state: "Science has no answers". Why do you think that? The issue has been debated and discussed at the highest levels world wide. Dare I say by people and bodies a lot more knowledgeable than you and I.  A common thread is to reduce carbon emmissions enough to keep the increase in temperates to less than 1.5 degrees to avoid the worse effects.  

                    At the recent Pacific conference Morrission attended our pacific neighbours said the best thing Australia can do for its neighbours is reduce carbon emmissions. Many of these countries are watching as their countries disappear under increasing sea levels.  All around us the effects of not acting are with us, the melitng polar caps, the prolonged droughts eg Syria, the heating oceans and the loss of animal species.  

                    Of course as a planet and country we have to balance the immediate costs of doing things against jobs and lifestyle but to deny that humans can and should be more than they are is beyond any reasonable argument based on the facts.  I would have thought that taking what measures we can to make the future climate better living for future generations is a must.

                    If I could go back 20 years? Let's us deal in real world facts, actions and consequences rather than fantasy 'fake news' and rhetoric.  

                     

                     

                    Scientific Consensus: Earth's Climate is Warming
                    Most leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing the position that climate-warming trends over the past centur…
          • Poppa, please stop storking me

This reply was deleted.

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