The Eels are understandably, heavily backed favourites at $1.35 to $3.25 at the time of writing this. The Eels must keep winning to keep their top 4 and home final hopes alive.

However, this is a danger game for them, and the Dogs are not to be underestimated. The Dogs have 3 straight wins on the trot. Only the Eels (4 straight), and the Roosters (5 straight) have a better current streak in the competition.

As Vince Lombardi noted: "Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence,” and both teams are full of confidence, and on a wave of belief.

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1. The Eels have an excellent record over the Dogs over the last 4 years: WWWWLWW

The Eels have played traditional rivals the Dogs more than any other team in our history (156 matches, with Manly second on 152 games) and won only 43% of matches overall (67W-6D-83L). However, the Eels have the wood on them in recent years, winning 6 of the last 7 matches.

The Dogs have only beaten the Eels twice in the last 4 years.

Meanwhile, Brad Arthur has won 2/3 games against Dean Pay, including the last 2. The last time the dogs and Dean Pay beat the Eels was last year, and Pay's only win against the Eels, was in R10, 20-12 at Stadium Australia. Before than the Dogs had not beaten the Eels for over 3 years - since R19, 2015 again at Stadium Australia 28-4.

2. Both teams’ are on the rise in last 2 months; 2 years, 3 years, 11 years

Both teams' fortunes have been on the rise since mid-year.

The Eels have won 8/10 including the last 4 in a row. If they win this week, it will be for only the second time in the last decade. TheThe last time they bettered this was 6 straight in R22 against the Dogs ironically, 20-4 at Stadium Australia. Before that, the last time we have won 5 straight was 11 years ago, back in R25, 2009 beating the Panthers 48-6 at this venue, then Parramatta Stadium. The Dogs have won 5/7 including last 3 straight. They are the highest they've ever been all year in 13th place. The Dogs have not won 4 straight for 3 years, since R16, 2016, when they came 7th, making the finals.

Two months ago things, both teams looked in danger of being swept away, especially the Dogs.

In R14 the Dogs were at rock bottom, lying spread eagled on the canvas: in last place, with the worst defence and attack, and only 3 wins. The Titans were 2 points clear of them. It was dire straits. At the same time, the Eels too, dizzied wobbly legs, clinging to the ropes in 8th spot with the second worst defence.

Since then, both teams have woken up and regained full consciousness. The Dogs are now in 13th place: the highest they’ve been all year. The Eels are now well established in 6th, 6 points clear of 8th place, with the 3rd best attack and the 10th best defence, whilst the Dogs have improved to the 11th best defence, from the second worst and worst, respectively.

However, whilst both teams defence and results have improved the Eels can score points, and hit the harder blows, with the third best attack; whilst the Dogs still struggle and remain the worst in attack.

3. Eels might be more potent in attack, but buyer beware

The Eels have scored 81 tries versus Dogs 48, and more potent all round, but both have conceded 73 tries, and the Eels will be heavily reliant on Moses' attacking kicking game, which has propelled him to the most try assists in the competition, as well as the Eels' effective second phase and support play; all of which needs to be switched on.

The Eels have scored: 29 (36%) off the left; 17 (21%) through the middle; 35 (43%) off the right. The Dogs have scored: 18 (38%) off the left; 8 (17%) through the middle; 22 (46%) off the right.

Eels conceded tries: 22 (29%) on left; 23 (32%) through the middle, second worst only ahead of St George (24); 29 (40%) on right. Dogs conceded tries: 31 (42%) on the left; 14 (19%) through middle; 28 (38%) on the right.

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In summary, superimposing both tries scored versus conceded the Eels right side, with Moses, Ma'u, Blake, Takairangi/Fergo - which has been the most potent right side in the competition - is statistically, most likely to score points.

The Eels left side with Sivo, Jennings, Brown, Lane, is second most likely to score points. Third most likely, surprisingly, is Dogs left side with Foran, CHN, Holland side, even more than their more potent right with Lewis and Hopoate - only because the Eels right defence has conceded more tries than its left.

However, the Dogs right side attack, is surprisingly better than Souths, Penrith (worst, with 14 tries), Titans, Warriors and equal with Wests, Newcastle. The high flying Roosters and Melbourne have only scored 23 tries a piece off their right sides, only 1 more than the Dogs.

One only has to look back to R17 to see what the Tigers right side did to our left side defence, scoring 3 tries, almost 4, to know this is a potential area of exploit for the Dogs and a not unlikely place for them to score points.

Neither side scores strongly through the middle, with the Eels only better than the Dogs, NQLD, and Titans and the Dogs the worst, which should help our often vulnerable middle.

4. Same result: Different perspective

In last week's post-match press conference, Arthur was left displeased, despite the 36-12 win against the Titans at CBUS.

Although, he said he felt “comfortable” when the game was in the balance at 12-6, the halftime score before a few quick tries were scored after halftime, he described the performance as the “most ill-disciplined this year”. He added we “disrespected ourselves”, stopping short of saying the Eels disrespected Titans and nor suggesting that the Eels took it too casually.

The back chatting penalites (Moses and Blake) and 12-10 penalty count against the Eels - the most the Eels had conceded all year - was testamount to that. 

However, Annesley did warn teams a few weeks ago there would be a clamp down on back-chatting against officials, and not to be surprised if penalised more. So there it is.

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Dean Pay on the other hand was quite escastic after the 14-6, 2 try to 0 win away, against now 5th placed Souths - adding that was the best they've played all year. He said their “D” was back the last 6 weeks and it has helped their “belief”.

He was singing Foran’s praises as well saying: the“Foran Of Old” is back and can get better. He lamented the Dogs start to the year saying he wished they could “start again.” Indeed, the capabilities of the likes of Foran, Lewis, DWZ, CHN and Hopoate are not to be underestimated.

Nonetheless, it was an intriguing difference in language and perspective.

One hopes the Eels do not do the same disrespecting of themselves, this week, but still end up with the same result.

After all, discipline and the “team” relationship bonding, were key things the Eels worked on pre-season and not the time for it to unravel.

As Sir Alex Ferguson noted: “Once you bid farewell to discipline you say goodbye to success.”

Despite late weeks penalty count against the Eels, the most they've conceded in a match all year, they remain are one of the least penalised teams in the competitions at 14th (conceding 120, at 5.7pg) only behind Souths and the Cowboys. A big improvement on last year (7th worst). The Dogs, meanwhile, sit mid-range in 9th place (conceding 139, at 6.6pg).

Ironically, the Eels v Dogs R2 game was the lowest penalty count the Eels have encountered all year (3-3).

Also, strangely enough the Eels have only lost 6 penalty counts all year (12W-3D-6L) but won 5 of those matches.

R10 loss against Cowboy, also lost penalty count 5-9.
R12 win over Souths, lost the penalty count 5-8.
R14 win over Broncos, lost the penalty count 5-6.
R15 win over Raiders, lost penalty count 5-7.
R20 win over Dragons win, lost penalty count 5-8.
R22 win over Titans, lost penalty count 12-10.

Strange game sometimes. Statistics can sometimes tell you two or three different stories. Bankwest, though, tells largely one story.

5. Eels have best home ground record: WWLWWWWW

Though the Eels have a marginally worse night game record than the Dogs (6W-6L to 5W-4L) the game is at Bankwest.

In eight games the Eels have only lost once at Bankwest for a WWLWWWWW record.

Overall, the Eels have the best home record in the competition (8W-2L for 80%), whilst the Dogs have an under-whelming away record (4W-6L, at 40%).

Still, Canterbury have also won their only 1 home match Bankwest against the Panthers, 16-8. The Panthers ironically were the Eels only loss at Bankwest, back in R11, 16-10 in a similarly dour gamr. As such, though technically, it is a home game for the Eels, the Dogs might not be as disadvantaged as some away games.

Amazingly, it was 12 years ago when the Eels last played the Dogs at this venue, in its previous reincarnation as Parramatta Stadium. That was back in R6, 2007, when the Dogs overcame the Eels 21-18 with the late Steve Folkes up against Michael Hagan as coaches. In those days Tim Smith and Brett Finch were our halves combination. We have come a long way since then. Moses has matured in ways we hoped Smith would have.

Bottom line

This is another game the Eels should win, if they play with the same attitude, confidence and composure they have had, but the confident Dogs are capable of pulling off an upset.

The Eels need to be on their game and must 'want' to win the game more than the Dogs, including the battle of collisions, keep working together, keep their respect and discipline on task; cornerstones of their success this year.

The scene is set for an intriguing showdown.

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  • Really exciting stuff can’t wait for this one tomorrow. Will be headed over straight after work. Few beers dinner and then the game perfect Thursday night. 

    This will be a tough game. As you say Dogs are one of the form teams in the comp. should be a really good fame.  Amazing that we could be in the top 4 at the end of the round. 

    • Yeah mate, exactly. Well said. I'm both excited and nervous. 

      A grinding match might make Arthur relatively comfortable, but not me, lol. 

  • Great preview again HOE. Well done.

    This should be a good game, and a much better test than last week.

    • MeelK, thanks mate.

      I agree: it's going to be a harder test for us. 

      As long as we win. I don't care if it's ugly or pretty. 

  • If Moses kicking is in point Parra will win.

  • Nice one mate.

    We need to bring our best attitude. The Doggies won't lie down or drop off.

    • Thanks mate. I agree. Well said.

  • Also, strangely enough the Eels have only lost 6 penalty counts all year (12W-3D-6L) but won 5 of those matches.

    R10 loss against Cowboy, also lost penalty count 5-9.
    R12 win over Souths, lost the penalty count 5-8.
    R14 win over Broncos, lost the penalty count 5-6.
    R15 win over Raiders, lost penalty count 5-7.
    R20 win over Dragons win, lost penalty count 5-8.
    R22 win over Titans, lost penalty count 12-10.

    The penalty count doesnt matter as much as where those penalties are called. I've seen Parra under the pump give away a penalty to reset our defensive line. Those are Storm and Roosters smarts we're starting to employ. We've become a lot more cynical giving away penalties which don't really hurt.

    • Yes, excellent conclusion Parra Fan. In many cases I'd say you're spot on.

      I actually like how Moses has slowed the last play down or kick to see off the last minute or so once or twice. And he has a slight smirk if you study his body language.

  • Terepo drops out and Tepai comes onto the bench...

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