I have been going over the stats to our first 11 games and sorted them into blocks, games 1-3 when Dylan Brown was 5/8, 4-7 when we were still doing ok and 5-8 when it all fell apart. There has been a gradual decline in most stats that are leading us back to what we had in 2018.
Games 1-3 Games 4-7 Games 5-8
Back 5 Average runs per game 65.33 73.5 66.5
Back 5 Average run mtrs per game 696.33 709.25 639.75
Average possession per game 52.6% 49.75% 46.75%
Average completions per game 72% 70% 75.25%
Average runs per game 175 172.25 162.25
Average run mtrs per game 1636 1637.5 1419.75
Average post contact mtrs per game 477.66 432.25 357.5
Average line breaks per game 3.33 5.25 3.0
Average tackle breaks per game 28 29 24.25
Average mtrs per set 41.6 42.72 39.32
Average play the ball speed 3.55s 3.61s 3.55s
Average kick return mtrs 186 165 154.75
Average offloads 12.33 8.75 11.25
Average total passes 207.33 208 192.75
Average kicks 18.66 17.75 18.75
Average kick mtrs 488.33 448 460.5
Average forced drop outs 2.66 1 1.75
Average total tackles 320.33 341 348.25
Average missed tackles 27 38.25 36
Average ineffective tackles 10.33 17.25 21.25
Average effective tackles 89.46% 86.02% 85.85%
Average Errors 14.66 12.25 11.5
Average penalties conceded 4 4.5 7
Some key factors;
Back 5 runs has remained consistant from the first block of games to the last block but the metres gained has dropped by almost 60 mtrs per game.
Possession has declined but completion rates have gone up, offloads have stayed consistant but total passes has dropped and our error rate has improved, this indicates we are doing less with the ball in the later round compared to the earlier ones where we were having more success, has BA spooked the playes by insisting they go back to his style from previous years?, could this be a factor in why the players seem to have stopped playing for him?.
Missed tackles and ineffective tackles have risen dramatically and effective tackles have fallen.
Tackles breaks are down as is mtrs per set along with post contact mtrs, this indicates our physicality is down (we need to run harder).
I also went over the player stats and going off them and from my observations i believe the following team is the most effective we can put on the field if all available.
1. Gutho, 2. Sivo, 3. M jennings, 4. Taka, 5. Fergo, 6. Brown, 7. Moses, 8. Paulo, 9. Mahoney, 10. Alvaro, 11. Lane, 12. Niukore, 13. Brown, 14. Salmon, 15. Mau, 16. Mannah, 17. Moeroa.
The team was performing better when Mahoney had a replacement utility player on the bench and whilst Dylan Brown is out i think we have to stick with Salmon at 5/8 and Will Smith on the bench. With Nathan Brown out Mau plays 13 and Gower comes on to the bench, Gowers stats are better than the other players available and he is more suited to coming on and replacing Mau at lock to stiffen up our ruck defense.The next forwards in line are Terepo and Kaufusi. If any outside backs are out Hoffman has the form to replace them although i woyld not play him at fullback, French would fill that spot if needed.
It's obvious to me and to many others that the team needs to get back to working hard and getting it's discipline back to where it was in the early rounds, if BA has resorted back to the style from previous years he needs to drop it and give the players back the freedom they seemed to thrive under erlier in the season. This season can still be a success, we are still in the 8 but playing down on effort and confidence. Can BA revive our faultering season?, lets hope so.
Replies
Great blog and interesting stats.
We have limited depth so we are probably missing the two Browns more than originally thought.
Agree with your top17 also. Problem is, when a side falls into a slump like we have, it’s very tough to fight your way out of it. Even if we do get the browns back, it could be season over by then. Looking at the draw and based on how we are traveling, I have us finishing on 20 points - 4 more wins plus the bye.
Not wooden spoon but definitely bottom 4.
Going over the individual player stats and combining them with the overall team stats, i think Dylan Brown is being missed more than anyone, his defensive work was very good and he was taking on the line, an area our current halves have fallen down on recently. His short kicking game also resulted in 3 drop outs during his 3 games, another area that has fallen down of late. It also has had a detrimental effect on the balance of our squad, we went from having a utility on the bench (salmon) which gave Mahoney a rest to having 4 forwards on the bench and Mahoney playing 80 mins.
The fact we havent resigned Dylan Brown now the media attention has died down with him being away from the spotlight comes down to 1 of two things
1) We havent identified this as the time to do it and once again showing we have idiots running the club
2) He wants to leave the club. I hope this is not the case but this is what happens when you have been the worst club in the comp for a decade it gets difficult to convince players to stay or come to the club.
Browns contract has been upgraded hasn’t it.
I’m pretty sure he’s untouchable for another 2 years isn’t he.
IT has been upgraded to a top 30 contract but other teams can offer him a contract for the 2021 season and beyond after november 1st this year. To prevent this we should try to extend his current contract that ends at the end of the 2020 season before november 1st this year.
I can see us losing Brown, the clowns in charge have no idea.
Good thread and breakdown.
Unfortunately with the Browns out indefinitely they seem to be missing links into what ales us.
Missing a couple players, even if they are key should not be such a problem.
Every team misses key players one time or another.
You find a team and a way to win even if it's ugly. We can't win ugly because we're not tough enough mentally.
Bingo.
good blog mate, its a real worry.
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