Brad Arthur's Waterloo is now. 2019. And he has a lot to straighten out, including a tie.
Many Eels fans are of the opinion, the "bush coach", is "clue-less" and should be sacked. Many would "boo Santa Claus" too.
Many Eels fans say a semi-final appearance would be a mandatory pass mark in the very least for Arthur.
History gives that a 5% chance. Only 6 coaches in the entire 110 year history of first grade rugby league have done that.If you put things in perspective, historically, that also gives a bit of credit to Arthur's rebuild of the Eels from multi-spooners of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 cap scandal and penalties, to rebound to top 4 in 2017 where he had his best year.
On the flip side, looking at the list of successful coaches' and their winning percentages: it's not surprising who's on top for winning percentages. Coaching Gods like Jack Gibson, Bellamy, Bennett: the ones with the highest footy IQ. Robinson and even young Siebold's records to date aee also in the rarified air of the coaching Gods.
The bottom line is - winning is what counts. And Arthur's winning percentage, in over 5 years at the struggling Eels, has now dropped to 45.3%.
That's now struggle city.
And plenty of coaches have been there: in the sewers of strugggle city. All of the bottom eight coaches of 2018 have. Let's start with a countdown of the lowest of all bottom dwellers and work our way up the food chain.
No.10. Ricky Stuart. The lowest of lowest award goes to "Rocky" with a 20.8% winning record with the Eels in 2013. And the 2013 spoon. He tried to re-build by a mass clean-out. It didn't end well for him.
No.9. Nathan Brown's 21% with Newcastle, over 3 years, from 2016-present. And 2 spoons. After 3 years of re-building 2019 is considered by many, as the break-out year of the Knights when they should reach the finals.
No.8. Stephen Kearney's 23.8% with the Eels, 2011−2012. And the 2012 spoon.
No.7. Craig Bellamy's 25% with the Storm, between 2006-2015, when he was without two of his three big three: Cronk, Slater, Smith. And there's also NSW during 2008–10, where he lives at 22%.
Brad Arthur's 25%, in 2018, his worst, ties with one of Bellamy's worst performances.
No.6. Garth Brennan's 33% with the Titans, in 2018. Dean Pay also scored 33% with the Bulldogs, over 2 years. 2017- present.
The successful Paul Green also scored 33%, his worst, with the Cowboys, during 2018.
No.5. Trent Barrett's 40% with Manly, 2016–18
No.4. Ivan Cleary's 42% with the Wests Tigers, 2017-18.
No.3. Jack Gibson's 43% with the Sharks, 1985-1987, over 3 years.
Even the Gods struggle.
No. 2. Wayne Bennett's 45% with Newcastle, 2012−2014 over 3 years.
Brad Arthur's 45% with the Eels during his entire 5 years and a bit for the Eels, ties with the "super-coach".
No.1. Brad Arthur scored 51% with the struggling Eels, for 4 years, during 2014-17. Arthur's 2017 season, his best with the Eels, was at a very Godly 66.7%.
So what are we to make of all this?
For one, perhaps Brad Arthur isn't as diabolical as many have confidently concluded.
Two, coaches, even the Gods of coaching, such as Gibson, Bennett, and Bellamy struggle when coaching weak, struggling teams.
Three, further to that, if any coach is almost surely going to struggle anywhere it's going to be at the Eels.
To add weight to that, the Eels top the list, of winning the most wooden spoons (with most recent spoons in brackets) from all existing clubs and second from all 34 first grade clubs to have ever played.
It also begs some serious questions. Are the Eels perennial coach-killers and team-killers? Is there a problem in our culture, and are we too soft-bellied?
And if so, traditionally dysfunctional political dramas and inability to attract TPA's are probable contributors, but what else? What's the solution: a better head-coach?
History suggests a better coach doesn't always translate to better results.
Even if Arthur goes reasonably well 2019, and beats the huge odds against him, he is still highly unlikely to be here in 2020.
We have a struggling team, a confidence-scarred group, used to losing in a club used to losing, with some aging stars past their best, mixed with promising but inexperienced unproven, young group.
It's almost the start of a new re-building cycle post 2017 when we were at our best. History is heavily against Arthur in such scenarios. 5% odds.
Coaches of teams re-building from wooden spoons like Newcastle or us, are around a 20% winning ratio (e.g. Brown and Stuart). The best was Flannagan's at 53% when 2015 Cronulla recovered from a spoon in 2014 to get to the semi-finals in 2015. But what a team he had then: a younger Gallen and Luke Lewus, Fifita, Wade Graham, Holmes, inforn firing Barba and Jack Bird. There's 5 Origin players there. The Eels of 2019 have zero.
Unless Arthur is able top do better than the coaching Gods or works something miracuous and unheard of in history - best case the team still sits outside the 8, worst case is another spoon. I think we're going to sit somewhere in between.
History suggests recruitment and retention, maintaining of player talent are possibly most important foundations for a successful coach. History suggests we struggle here a lot.
It's my view Arthur is no worse than most other NRL coaches. But not a great one. Not yet, at least. He is respected by the players and his peers, passionate, a good people person, loyal to his players, cares about them and the club. That why the players care about him too. 2017 showed some of his promise.
Arthur needs to be a better teacher and improve his footy IQ, or get better support - to get the best out of the talent he has at his disposal, that the Gods can.
Jack Gibson, Bellamy, Bennett and even Siebold share a common denominator: they constantly learn, study, evolve and possess innovative ideas, learning from their mistakes. Mistakes are critical. Arthur also has made mistakes, and recruitment errors. He needs to learn from them too. I'm not sure Arthur has adressed all the footy IQ factors for 2019, nor has highly innovative coaching support.
Arthur's bloodied commitment to us through our most troubled times in history was inspiring and something I'll never forget. And the reason behind this very lengthy historical blog. He deserves better.
If Arthur sticks this storm out, he will probably end up the winner out of the exchange - especially, if he goes to a stronger club with better support and less political drama. He could probably, say, get better results out of Canberra than Ricky has. He'll probably end up there or with the Dogs or Manly, is my bet. He should do better too.
Who's next?
Now, for all who want Arthur sacked or see him gone in 2020 or sooner: Who should replace him and why? Why do you think the new coach will succeed and or even want to take the helm of a traditionally struggling team, a coach-killer, given our political dysfunctionality, given choices? Maybe an assistant coach, looking for a stepping stone?
Though, Arthur almost certainly will be gone by 2020 or sooner, don't get ready to put on your shades just yet. History has a way of biting back and making fools out of us all. Even the Gods are made fools of - given a chance.
Replies
Wests won a premiership in 1993?, say what?.
Yeah good research! Simple google will tell you it was Brisbane.
Yes apologies - for the silly typo. You guys are correct. It was 1934 when Wests won a premiership after their 1933 spoon.
I thought i was living in an alternate reality for a while there.
Nice read!
I think Ricky had the tough job of cleaning out and absolute diabolical mess created by those before him. I don't read too much into his record here as I think BA was the coach who would be in a better position to bear the fruits of the labour. I also think the salary cap debacle whilst it ruind our 2016 team, continued to put us in a much better position than we had been since 2011. We cleared out a tonne of dead wood.
BA avoided an absolute bullet with the medical retirements of Beau Scott and Watmough and the resgination of Foran. All 3 should still be on our roster now and are well and truely past their best.. just like Jennings.
All in all I think we've trusted BA with our best roster building position since 2011. I think the fact we were slowly assending and last year fell all the way back to the bottom means we need to be very careful to avoid the same mistakes with the roster that we did chasing success after 2010. We shouldn't worry so much about the coaches record at this stage rather we should see positive progession and roster improvements. The young players should improve, we should buy guys who will compliment them and play to a style that our squad is built towards. Results will come! Its a contridiction personally for BA though who probably needs results to stay in the job. Another reason why we should've turfed him.
As much shit as we all give Ricky he had by far the toughest job out of all the coaches we;ve had over the last decade and made some tough decisions for us. It just looked bad when he bailed for family reasons and what not but who knows what would've happened had he stayed to bear the fruits of his labour he copped shit over.
Thanks GWF: Yeah I agree with you. And there's alot riding on our young guys this year. If Arthur bites the bullet.
Yes, Ricky does get a roasting from a lot of people. He's not as bad a coach as many assume.
Like you said, maybe something like those mass sackings is that's got to happen again: post Arthur. Luckily this time most of the guys we probably don't need too much are at the end of their contracts. So there probably won't be as much drama at the re-building or re-shaping of our team from 2020. Some of that is already starting.
But - even if Ricky's intentions were noble, he abandoned the Eels ship pretty quickly - and that's something that I've never forgotten.
Maybe his sometimes 'prickly' and 'defensive' body language has something to do with some people's dislike of him. There's a pretty good article om him which defends him and paints him in a good light. Not a bad read.
https://www.insidesport.com.au/news/ricky-stuart-cant-coach-422428
I’m in are you?
Ricky’s catch cry and then left, one year into a three year contract after lieing for months and stating he wasn’t going anywhere as he had work to do at the eels.
Also, when he signed at the eels he said that he never wanted to leave Sydney as his autistic daughter attended a school which supported her and his wife and he couldn’t take her away from there.
He signs with Canberra after only a season at the eels and states that it was because he had support in Canberra for his autistic daughter.
Grunta, Good points. Ricky obviously was desperate to get out.
It was due to personal reasons, but I don't think it was just about his family. The Eels club politics were a reason. Plus his heart was always stronger with the Raiders. I think he saw the writing on the wall and knew he had to abandon the ship.
He's a controversial, polarising figure, our Ricky.
As to who replaces him.... well we're not privvy to all the info required - that's why the board are paid & we're not. All I can say is I do not want another nobody with no coaching experience like Arthur & Kearney!
Kenny was the King - thanks for the response. Yes, we aren't privvy and that's the way it should stay.
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