We’re all disappointed by our results so far and with some one-eyed ‘never say die’ unicornism I believe we’ve shown glimpses of being a top 8 team & what we’re capable of earlier this year through some of our wins.
When Arthur kept reiterating we're ‘shooting ourselves in the foot’, sitting aside Mannah's agreeable blushing face in press conferences it irked me somewhat.
So I decided to think about it a little today and explore our 2015 stats (first time I've done this in my life other than checking stats for my super coach fantasy team).
I’ve come to the conclusion there is truth to what Arthur's saying.
Now bear in mind a majority of our games have been against good opposition (65% against top 8 teams, would be 75% if Knights didn’t drop out) here are some stats in a nutshell up to Round 11.
Offensively
We doing OK, perhaps better than it appears.
Scoring 200 points overall we’re about mid range at 8th or so. However, looking at it more closely the signs are more positive.
Overall we make 1499m per game (v 1512m opposition) however, we make 7m more per set on average. So we’re actually making more ground per set than the top 8 teams.
We score off about every 7.4 set per try, pretty much the same as our top 8 opposition.
So we’re keeping up offensively. If we had the same level of completions (which we don’t) in theory we would be on par points wise putting aside our atrocious goalkicking of late).
In conclusion, bearing in mind we’re at the bottom of the table, have lost two of our strike weapons in Hayne & Semi (for most of the year) those numbers are pretty impressive. It also suggests our go forward has been good.
Defensively
You don’t need to be Einstein to see we’re sitting ducks here. The glaringly obvious is we’ve leaked more points overall than anyone (258) but that doesn’t reveal the entire picture.
Before glances at these calamatic stats further you've got to bear in mind we've only had 6 more tries scored against us overall for the year (average half a game more) and yet the below reads like a horror story.
We leak an average 40% more penalties per game than our opposition (5.2 v 7.3 per game av.) There appears to be only 2 games all year where the penalty count has gone our way.
We leak an average 30% more mistackles per game than our opposition (27.6 x 19.3 av per game). I count only 3 games all year where we haven't leaked more mistackles than the opposition.
We leak an average of 10% more errors per game than the opposition (10.9 v 9.2 av per game). Some games we’ve actually doubled the error count of our opposition. In only 4 games this year we’ve made less errors than the opposition.
That makes us sitting ducks with an average of almost 10% less possession per game (46.7% v 53.3% av per game). There’s only been 2 games all year we’ve actually had more overall possession than our opposition.
Our poor completions rates mean the opposition is getting 4 more complete sets per game (26.2 v 30.1 av per game).
Not surprisingly, we make on average almost 10% more tackles per match than the opposition (350 v 320 av per match).
Alarming. Supposedly, "offense wins matches, defence wins championships". Well, we will struggle to win a match with these kind of defensive stats.
So what do these mind boggling stats tell us ?
FIrstly, collectively, our biggest liability is not our offence. It’s our defence and as a team we need to accept that collectively we're failing in this department.
For all those pointing blame at individuals, such as blaming Corey Norman’s lack of creativity or Watmough’s failure to meet expectations as a marquee acquisition are missing the point. Take them out, doesn’t fix our major liabilities (whereas Sandow for example, probably contributes more to some of our liabilities defensively).
I honestly believe team confidence is a major underlying reason.
We drop our bundle all too easily when the blow torch is applied. The last two games showed that, as well as the Tigers & Broncos games where we potentially stood chances of winning. We just let ourselves down when it counted most.
Against the Rabbits Friday night we made 77 more tackles (424 to 347) and 23 more missed tackles (30 to 7). South just played their usual power game without all that much creativity & waited for us to drop our bundle (and we almost didn’t). Unfortunately, we did, right at the death through a Sandow boggle followed by a Wicks tackle misread. That was enough to get the Rabbits through. It was a case of dejavu 'here we go again'.
With a string of errors, lack of ball, heavy workload & huge penalty counts, fatigue issues compound errors and poor judgements exacerbating our already eroding confidence which leads to further errors and nerves being lost.
The focus on fixing our defensive woes & discipline has to start now. Over time our confidence and momentum will build from that. You can’t really buy team confidence and chemistry & I’m not so sure, looking to 2016, a couple of super talented individuals can fix all these defensive issues.
I believe if we can address our defensive woes & regain team confidence we’re potentially a top 8 team. Keep the faith. Never give Up !
Replies
This is the most comprehensive wrap-up so far of our season. Terrific statistical analysis.
Let's hope we can start winning a few and realise our potential.
I think 'concentration' is the major factor in our losses.
We need the whole team concentrating for the full 80 minutes.
I'm not sure how you train for this, but some of the lapses this year in defence and penalties at crucial times have cost us dearly.
I suppose, "concentration" loss of focus is caused by either:
- over stressed, fatigued mind, or
- a mind that isn't motivated enough, distracted or bored (so the mind is not there, it's bored & elsewhere).
I'd like to believe based on the great effort of the boys in recent weeks it's largely due to stress & fatigue.
Maybe a few have their mind elsewhere. Sandows positional play Friday night and confusion suggests there is a possibility his mind is elsewhere at times.
Well put together Hell On Eels. we didn't need the stats to tell the story but they are helpful.
This is a fantastic blog. What a great read - thank you.
Re: penalties, I'd love to know the nature of ours, both for and against. It may be my 'One-Eyedness', but I reckon we're getting pinged at more crucial times than our oppositions; later in tackle counts, deeper in their territory, earlier in games and halves etc etc. Added onto the fact we've only won 2 counts, and considering the rewards of a penalty, we really make it hard for ourselves.
I agree. I'm not sure . It would be interesting to look at that stat.
In my mind I think we've been unfairly crucified on many occasions this year. A lot of crucial 50/50 penalties go against us.
Bottom placed teams have been known to get the rough end of the stick. It's human nature to believe a previously heavily penalised team (thus branded "ill disciplined") will be more likely to be ill-disciplined again, which increases your odds of being pinged.
Most coaches in Arthur's shoes would of copped about $150,000 in fines by now if they were pinged 40% more than every team they played all year !
It's utter Bullshit the treatment we're getting !
For example, a kick over the dead ball line vs a kick that results in an opposition dropout. One results in the Eels having to perform additional tackles, the other results in the opposition performing less tackles. Neither of these kicks results in a try (and therefore compares stat wise with top teams) however the end result is completely different.
You correctly put it down to discipline, however this is not only in defence, but in attack also.
OUTSTANDING FirsT blog HOE, right up there with the best ever first blogs on the site imo, well balanced, well delivered, and well researched if i may say, officially welcome aboard and hoping we see plenty more blogs and posts from you, cheers
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