I am trying to work out why Morgan polarises opinion so much, seems it is either love or hate. At the same time, I am trying to understand why Hopoate & Tonga are so highly rated, in comparison. Time to look at the factual statistics regarding our Centres.
Attack Play Try T Ass AllRun ARMetre LineBreak LB Ass HitUp OffLoad TackleBust
Will HOPOATE 13 2 5 149 1308 3 6 4 2 27
Willie TONGA 16 2 4 147 1281 3 7 13 17 14
Ryan MORGAN 7 4 0 62 597 4 1 10 7 14
A couple of observations can be made. Morgan has scored more tries and made more line breaks, despite playing only half the games. This is surely a plus. Both Hopoate and Tonga are nowhere near the top 20 NRL players in these areas and hardly what you would call strike Centres.
The glaring observation is Morgans lack of try assists (Toutai owes him one) and line break assists. This is seemingly the biggest criticism of him, the inability to set up his winger. Interestingly, neither Hopoate nor Tonga have recorded a try assist or line break assist since Round 10.
In fact Tonga's last try assist was Round 4 v Penrith. If you take out Tonga's Round 3 game v Manly (2 try assists and 3 line break assists) his seasonal assist stats rank amongst the worst in the NRL. Tonga's tackle busts per game are poor at less than 1 per game and overall statistically, his attacking game is nothing to get excited about.
Similarly, the majority of Hopoate's good attacking games statistically occurred early in the season, with the assistance of a performing forward pack, prior to the injuries to Ma'u and Peats. Of concern is Hopoate's inability to offload in the tackle with only 2 offloads the entire season, although no doubt he has the better hands and passes the ball before the line and when drawing the opponent (no stats for this trait).
Defence Play Tackles 1 on 1 Missed Ineffective Errors
Will HOPOATE 13 189 29 46 18 7
Willie TONGA 16 110 18 24 9 11
Ryan MORGAN 7 100 11 16 6 9
Defensively, the stats certainly point to Hopoate having problems, with far too many ineffective and missed tackles, in comparison. His game against Penrith was diabolical and yesterday, I know he saved one try with a great tackle, but the misread on Dave Taylor's first try in letting him stroll through untouched was not a good look. The stats simply show Tonga not working hard enough in defence and Morgan certainly needs to work on his error rate. Defensively though, Morgan seems up to the task and is definitely not lacking in effort.
In summary, there are statistics and there are statistics, some very meaningful, some rather insignificant and not all stats tell the entire story of a players value. But, it is a good place to start.
Morgan has not had the luxury that Hopoate and Tonga had at the start of the season, of playing behind a performing pack of forwards. 3 of his 7 games this year have been played in the absence of Hayne, and we all know the affect that has on the team. He was arguably the best back last year and no doubt disappointed at missing the early season success.
I am not suggesting Morgan is the better player, but I will say in comparison to the dollars spent on both Hopoate & Tonga, he is value for money and that is what Parramatta needs at the moment.
I am yet to make up my mind whether he will turn out to be a quality 1st grade player, I know many of you already have, but I will not be surprised if he plays 200 games and not too many do that.
He has the ability to play left or right, not many can do that.
Many of you on this site are way too critical of players, and hide behind aliases, dishing out vitriolic abuse without recourse or factual evidence based argument.
Yet, I respect the right of opinion and this blog is merely my humble opinion..... just saying.
Replies
1. Your opinion is irrelevant because you're a Liverpool fan :)
2. I don't think them defensive statistics "certainty point to Hopoate having problems". Although he has more missed tackles, he also has more tackles and more 1 on 1 tackles, meaning he is has a higher defensive work rate compared to our other centres. (Keep in mind, he's played fewer games than Tonga). If you actually watch him play, he is a really good defender..so yeahh.
3.Statistics aren't everything. They're like a bikini. They show a lot, but they cover the best bits. These stats involve outliers, and each game is obviously different, facing different opponents. Stats don't highlight a players capability, so I don't think we should worry about it and look into it too much mate.
1. Thanks for your irrelevant comment in my being a Liverpool supporter, but I am flattered that you bothered to check out my profile.
2. Here is the Maths. Hopoate has attempted 253 tackles in 13 games at 19.46 tackles per game. He has missed or been ineffective in 64 tackles or 4.9 per game, meaning a success rate of 74.7%.
Tonga has attempted 143 tackles in 16 games at 8.93 tackles per game. He has missed or been ineffective in 33 tackles, meaning a success rate of 76.9%. I concede an outlier here as Tonga is just not getting involved.
Morgan has attempted 122 tackles in 7 games at 17.42 tackles per game. he has missed or been ineffective in 22 tackles or 3.1 per game, meaning a success rate of 82%.
I actually do watch Hoppa play, and I don't think he is a 'really' good defender. I also think opposition coaches watch him play too, and therein perhaps lies the reason for his extra workload... knowing that he will be ineffective/miss more than 1 out of every 4 tackles attempted... so nahhh.
3. I agree stats are just that..... but perhaps you could highlight the parts of capability that the stats overlook. And I am sure there are, but some evidence to support your argument would be nice. These capabilities need to be strong to overlook 5 ineffective/missed tackles per game.
Just thinking out loud really. I agree with most of your points.
Thanks for putting this together
I'll be gutted if we let him go
I don't speak for everyone here but stats don't tell the whole story. Hoppa has been solid defensively in my opinion, and I'm not actually sure what categorises as a 'missed' or 'ineffective' tackle. Morgan is a solid player but his poor passing game and vision just kills it for me, if he does fix it he can become 10x better.
At the start of the year I was all for Tonga and Hoppa in the centers but after tonga got manhandled against hurrell against the warriors it made me rethink that sticking with morgan may be better.
Many of us are critical because knowing how and when to pass and create space is essential for a center, morgan is the type that tries to do it by himself.
I was so glad to see Tonga got the chop rather than Morgan yesterday to make room for Hoppa, he definitely doesn't deserve the criticism he receives on this site. Reminds me of Ken Sio last year, always used as a scape goat.
Excuse me Dr Wong, I think you will find Hoppa played Round 12 v Penrith (remember he had a shocker), he also played Round 13 v NQ Cowboys and also Round 20 v GC Titans ..... all with no assists.
he played with a bung shoulder and still managed to save a try as 4 mogan lol shat
A pretty good summary, though statistics can be misleading.
Hoppa-Sio and Tonga-Semi combinations were lethal pre injury and Origin.
Hoppa has a sometimes freakish ability to get the ball to his winger. Tonga gives QUALITY ball to Semi to run into space.
Morgan lacks vision to pass, fumbles before he can pass, mistimes his passes or passes with his wingers squeezed on the sidelines. A definite lack of experience.
I think at times Hayne hesitates to pass to Morgan or run on his side. I remember Hayne yelling to "Pass the F-ing ball".
With Tonga going and Sio looking like going, BA has little choice to persist with Morgan.
My opinion is that our poor execution and ability to score points of late is no coincidence.
Great blog Brett.
Morgan is the only centre we have that run the length of the field, centres aren't just there to set up their wingers, a good centre has the ability to the make a break and find the line.
Tonga's first and only option is too find Semi because he couldn't out run Homer Simpson. Tonga has scored two tries all year, one or possible both from intercepts.
Morgan backs himself, he will develop his positional play in attack, Tonga nor Hoppa will be developing genuine speed any time soon.
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