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Match Preview: R1 vs Dragons
So here we go. Round One and it's a cracker. The Eels go head-to-head again with the Dragons after that famous semi-final last year when the mighty Blue and Gold were able to defy all odds to knock the minor premiers out the of competition.
Ironically, you only had to go back a week before that when Dragons captain Dean Young was talking about mental scarring. Well, this time the shoe is well and truly on the other foot. I do wonder how much this Dragon's team will carry some from of psychological damage from that semi-final loss. With all of the ball, in front of a packed parochial crowd, they simply could not get through the Eel's defence. And then there's the fact that we stole their star home-grown prop as one of three big off-season signings. The Dragons on the other hand have loss talent, if anything and they go into this game without one of their leaders Matt Cooper.
Those little psychological doubts can get at you. Especially, early in the season, when you're still trying to work the rust out of your game, you want to be brimming with confidence or it's quite easy for your game to just fall apart.
Of course, the Eels will have their own little psychological demons to play with. They know they have a history of starting poorly and they've lost three from three trials. They also know they're going to be playing in front of a big home crowd and there is world of expectations for something great this season.
I'm not going to go into too much detail for this preview about individual player match-ups or overall strengths and weaknesses, because these early season games are generally won by the team that plays the least worse. How successfully you can banish those little voices in your head, when you're not yet properly into your game frame of mind. It's about how much ball you hold onto and the number of times you hand over opportunities to your rival. It comes down to simple little statistics like possession and territorial advantage.
So for all of the brilliance that the Parramatta side looks to have on paper, I'm not going to get excited about them producing it, until I see some example of it happening on the park.
Let's not then, worry too much about whether Parramatta will win the game or not. If they come with the right enthusiasm and concentration, complete their sets and work like hell in defence, they will likely prevail. More interesting is to speculate about how we might actually play the game.
There is the question of whether the Eels will go into the match as named. It still won't surprise me if the Eels do some shifting around to get Fuifui on to start the match. As I've mentioned in comments this week, it would make some sense to me to open with all three of our props on the field to get the game underway. I can't help but think that getting off to a strong start is going to be absolutely critical and the first team to score is going to have a big, big advantage. You don't want to be playing catch up football when you're still trying to build up your confidence and combinations. I wouldn't be leaving anything on the bench.
That said, Moimoi has come off the bench in the trials so probably safer to assume, that will be the case on Friday night. About the time, Fuifui comes on, we're also likely to see Kris Keating and Shane Shackleton come on the park while the Dragons will be forced to throw a couple of their inexperienced bench players in the frey.
This has to be the time that the Eels push for an advantage.
Prior to this period, then, I expect the Eels to play a very basic game. I'm sure Daniel Anderson will be hoping to see just how much muscle he has in his pack. The Dragon's forwards regularly rolled over the top of their opponents last year, so its definitely going to be a good test for our Poore-led pack to see if they can out-muscle rival big-boppers. The Eels motivation at this time will likely be to ensure they don't concede any points and basically just try and work themselves into the game.
The injection of our bench into the side, however, will likely see us try and play a little more expansively. As we tended to do towards the end of last year, we only started to offload until midway through the first half. I expect Fuifui to play wider as a bench player and be used as an attacking weapon, more so just a metre maker. I have no doubt, we'll try and repeat the formula that the Broncos had so much success with last year running Dave Taylor at Jamie Soward. Soward better to be prepared for a defensive hammering.
Most will be expecting Kris Keating to come onto the park in a dummy half role, but it won't surprise me if he either replaces Jeff Robson or Robson shifts up to dummy half. If that happens I can see us play very much a left-side, right-side attack with Daniel Mortimer combining with Hayne on one side and Keating and Mateo working over the other side of the park. When you add to that formula the fact that you've got Timana Tahu as your go-to man out wider down the left and potentially Fuifui Moimoi stalking on the other side, it's going to be a very difficult job defending against that level of raw power, size, speed and skill.
If I had to bet on how Kris Keating will be used, I'd predict he'll be used in his first stint as a dummy half replacing Matt Keating, and then MK to return probably in place of Jeff Robson with KK to half-back. Then again, maybe that's too much mid-game disruption for the first game of the season, but I expect that's the kind of interchanging we'll see as we settle into the season.
Already, a lot has been made of the new rule interpretation that will stop defenders from rushing down-field early and which should give the back three far more space. I definitely expect that to favour the Eels this year, but perhaps only marginally over the Dragons. While the Eels defence will need to be vigilant against the likes of Boyd and Morris, I still don't think there is a better back three in the competition that Hayne, Grothe and Burt. More importantly though it will favour our kicking game which is much flatter than the Dragons. Matt Keating and whoever is at dummy half will no doubt kick a lot from that position but then Nathan Fien has a good boot on him too.
In the end, though, if past games are anything to come by this game will come down to how well Joel Reddy and Eric Grothe defend the Brett Morris wing. It's the Dragon's pet move and judging by what I saw of the Charity Shielf nothing much has changed. Best bet is for the Eel's not to let the Dragons get into that attacking position too often and to stack that side with its best defenders because the Dragons don't look nearly as dangerous down the other side without Wendell Sailor.
In the end, I think the Eels will have too much firepower if they get an even share of possession and with a big home crowd to fire up them up, I think they can start the year with a win.
1Eyed Tip: Eels by 12
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Bourbon Man on -
My one real concern is that the Dragons have already played a really competitive match. I know the Charity Shield is technically a 'trial' however both teams traditionally go quite hard to win it!
They weren't fantastic against Souths a fortnight ago but will have the edge that a truly competitive hit-out gives you at the start of the season. Should the scores be close heading into half time I reckon we'll roll them but the danger is they get out to 10-16 point lead at half time.
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Permalink Reply by David on -
I don't care if we win or lose this game as much as I care about getting injuries. Please just come through with no injuries. A victory would be the icing on the cake.
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Permalink Reply by Bert Kenny on -
it all looks good for a cracker, I too think Dragons best strike weapon is that "pet plays" they have down Morris's wing, they have the old cut out pass (look out Grothe), and the kick in behind close to the line, hope Jarryd is alert to it.
Take them plays out, they have very little apart from hoping from a loose tackle or a drop ball etc to get them over the line.
If Hindmarsh shuts Dean Young down and our halves defend well against Soward, we will win well..... and very well.........
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Permalink Reply by Gibson on -
Nice write up, Phil.
You know, this side just bristles power, speed and talent. They could start slow, they could start white hot. I actually don't mind if they drop a couple so long as they're getting their act together for when things count.
It's the new talent, the new combinations and the new force that this side will exude and that I'm most keen to see.
Notwithstanding the galaxy of real star performers we have I think the biggest talent in this side is the coach. I can't wait to see how his season's plan unfolds.
This could really be one of the great sides.
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Permalink Reply by Daneel on -
Cant really add much to that one Phil. I like the angle this write up took.
I think we'll have too much fire power up front tomorrow. This will certainly give our back line more opportunity than the Drags. I think the Dragons are lacking slightly up front compared to Parra.
Should be a cracker of a game.... im really looking forward to seeing what sort of structure we play with? Bring it on!!
Parra by 7.
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Permalink Reply by Normo on -
You make a good point about Moi Moi and KK coming on at the same time. I reckon KK will really make an impact. Be interesting to see how Ando uses him. I think it might be initially from dummy half and then see how it plays out from there.
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Permalink Reply by crow on -
Spot on preview !
Agree totally, minimize mistakes defend strongly and the rest should take care of itself , cant wait !
In the words of the late great Joey Ramone ..... " HEY HO, LETS GO , HEY HO, LETS GOOOOOOOO"
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Permalink Reply by Darkie on -
With all the construction works in the Stadium carpark, the saints best watch out. The Steamroller well may come through on Friday night.
If we win the battle upfront the cavalry will carve them up from behind. I cant see Tahu , Hayne, Grothe or Burt standing still with an open paddock beckoning.
If we go down it will be either lack of possession or Tony Archer.
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Permalink Reply by Billblogs on -
CONFIDENCE is the Eel's best weapon. If they are confident then they are almost unbeatable as we saw last year. If they come out firing and for example...Tahu makes a couple of big hits, Fui smashes Weyman and Poore has a few runs which don't harm his pride, then I think we will begin the entire season with a lot of confidence. Jarryd is a confidence player and should follow suit. Go Eels very early and smash 'em!
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Permalink Reply by GOlling on -
The dragons are the best bet of the round. Motivated by revenge and as BM states the charity shield game under their belt.
Slow starter Eels run the risk of looking at their new gear and hair styles in the mirror prior to running on.
I think we need a kick in the butt to get us moving. Maybe the trials did that but Im not sure. IF DA has us on song Friday night we will have a monster year
Dragons to fire.
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Permalink Reply by blueNgold on -
Hate to say I agree, but I do. I just have the overiding feeling that I'm going to be walking out of Parra Stadium tomorrow very disapointed.
I look at our squad and it is awesome, alround better than the dragons. But I just have the feeling that it isn't going to click for us straight away, I have no doubt that it will click eventually though. Our defence has been poor traditionally over the start of seasons over the last few seasons, and from what I saw at Gosford it didn't look like this was going to change in 2010.
You know the dragon's will come out complete their sets and with soward in the squad you know their outside backs will get quality ball and score points.
Dragons by 10. I'd Loooooovvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvve to be proven wrong though.
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Permalink Reply by 1Eyed Eel on -
I think your both under-rating Daniel Anderson in particular. He turned this team around from a side that you couldn't pick one week from the next to a side that was week-in, week-out performing at optimum.
There is no reason we shouldn't start this year, the way we finished last year. He has very obviously chosen a side with that in mind. He has retained the combinations that worked for us last year.
This is the least disruptiion we've had season-for-season for many, many years. Last year, we had a new coach. They year before that we had to rely on a number of new blokes coming into grade who didn't make the immediate step up to NRL. I see no reason why one should draw the conclusion that we'll come out aka round one last year rather than the way we finished the season. You simply can't draw anything from trials where you're throwing in a bunch of young blokes and experimenting with combinations.
P.S. I think Soward will be found out this year.
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