Eels mid-season review and preview of the run home

Round 13 has come and gone and Eels sit in 8th position with a bye in hand.

 

Just how have they gone so far this season?

 

Record

 

7 Wins, 6 Losses.

 

Home record 3:2.

 

Away record 4:4

 

The Eels started the season in red hot form beating Manly in their own backyard 12-20, then backing up by doing the same to current top 4 St George Illawarra Dragons. The wins came on the back of a power forward game with Matagi and Brown being the early pack leaders.

 

Next came a 4 game losing streak, going down to the Titans 26-14, then the sharks 6-20, then the Raiders 30-18 and the Warriors 22-10. The one positive out of that streak is we played 3 away games. We really should have beat the Titans but in a common thread, dumb penalties, poor ball control and lack of poise in the opposition 20 cruelled our chances.

 

The reigning premiere's simply grinded the Eels out of the Round 4 clash. The Eels were in with a chance down in Nations Capital, but again, missed opportunities and a freak injury to Beau Scott lead to Cotric sealing the game in Raiders favour.

 

Over in the land of the long white cloud, the Eels again dropped the ball coming out of their own half and simply weren't good enough against former Eel, Keiran Foran who banked points in our 20 on a number of occasions.

 

Fast forward to Round 7 at home 40 minute mark. The Eels are down against a woeful Tigers team. BA put a rocket up the boys at half time and they responded, fighting back and punishing the Tigers in the middle third of the field to come away 26-22 point winners.

 

Round 8 against the Panthers, and for the first half the Eels look like world beaters over a truly awful Panthers team. After an early try in the second half the Eels go to sleep. Norman's kicking game turned to pus, and the Panthers put on two late trys to make a match of it.

 

Round 9 and a trip to Townsville, where the Eels bullied an injury ravaged Cowboys side. The Eels were in complete control for the majority of the match, but Kenny Edwards soured the affair in the last 15 minutes by getting himself sent off for a slap.

 

Round 10, and the Chooks ran riot over the Eels. Our middle forwards were simply dominated and outclassed. The game and the result harkened back to some of the bad old days in 2012-2013. I'm willing to write it off as a bad mulligan as everything the Roosters touched turned to gold, and anything good the Eels did turned into Roosters possession (i.e. Brown's hit on Napa)

 

Round 11 the Eels tried hard against an average Raiders side. We simply lacked the finishing ability needed to win this game, with Moses playing his first match in the blue and gold. An injury to Jennings during the game, shifted Ma'u to centre and he was exploited for that last try to Rapana. This was really a match we should have won looking at the stats on paper, and hopefully it doesn't come back to haunt us.

 

Round 12, the Eels ran rampant over a terrible South's team. The scoreboard was not a true reflection of how dominate the Eels were in this match, and some late contentious referee decisions certainly helped the bunnies cause.

 

Round 13, the Eels run away with the win over a directionless Warriors outfit. Low on troops to begin with, the Eels were down to 14 players early in the second half. A champagne performance by Clint Gutherson and some tough efforts but the middle forwards gave the Eels a win in a gritty display reminiscent of 2016.

 

Injury List

 

Cody Nelson - Indefinite - hamstring

Michael Jennings - Round 16 - quad

Matt Woods - Round 15 - shoulder

Corey Norman - Round 17 - knee

Frank Pritchard - Round 18 - foot

Peni Terepo - Round 22 - pectoral

Isaac De Gois - Indefinite - concussion

 

From <http://www.parraeels.com.au/news/2017/05/30/injury_report_round_.af_info_injury-report.html>

 

 

We can Add, Hoffman, Gower, Mannah, Vave and possibly Auva'a to that list after the game against the Warriors.

Nathan Brown is also playing through a rib cartilage injury.

 

Injuries will certainly have an impact on our next couple of matches. There is strong word that Norman will play against the Cowboys in Round 14, and Mannah and Vave will also hopefully be back.

 

The run home

 

Round 14 - Eels v Cowboys

 

Round 15 - Eels v Dragons

 

Round 16 - bye

 

Round 17 - Eels v Bulldogs (w)

 

Round 18 - Storm v Eels

 

Round 19 - Bye

 

Round 20 - Wests Tigers v Eels (w)

 

Round 21 - Eels v Broncos

 

Round 22 - Bulldogs v Eels (w)

 

Round 23 - Eels v Knights (w)

 

Round 24 - Eels v Titans (w)

 

Round 25 - Broncos v Eels

 

Round 26 - Eels v Rabbitohs (w)

 

I've marked with a w games that we would be expected to win in the run home.

 

In the run home we have 7 home games, and play at ANZ 9 times (Wests and Dogs home games) from our remaining 11 games.

 

We only travel away from ANZ two times to play the Storm down in Melbourne and the Broncos up in Brisbane.

 

Our round 15 match against the Dragons will coincide with the Dragons best players going into origin camp for game 2 of Origin, so we will play a Dragons team without Dugan, Frizell, JDB

 

Our round 18 match against the Storm will coincide with the Storms best players going into origin camp for game 3, so we will be coming up against a Melbourne side without Smith, Cronk, Chambers and possibly Slater.

 

If we win the matches we should, we will end the season with a 13:11 record on 30 points including the bye points. More than enough to make the top 8. If we can knock off an origin depleted Dragons and Storm side we can pick up another 4 competition points and lodge ourselves well into the top 6.

 

Final Verdict

 

This years Eels team has been teeth grittingly inconsistent. In our dominant win over the Dragons we showed some red hot form which could have us pegged as a top 6 team. However matches like those against the Titans and the Roosters also showed the bad Parramatta Eels, error prone and mentally weak.

 

If we want to run the table it needs to start with a solid backup performance against the Cowboys at home. The Norman and Moses combination in the halves will be key. Our spine is very young, as is much of our team. I really think we need to make the 8 anyway we can, just to give the boys a taste, and show that a full season's effort will have a reward.

 

I think we can make the 8, although we will be flying by the seat of our pants, with injury concerns and inconsistency over the next 13 rounds. So buckle up boys and girls, we are in for a wild ride!

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  • At best where we will finish will depend on many things including having some decent ref calls going our way, if that happens and no more injuries in key positions then we could reach the 4/5 spot.

    Worst case I think is that again, and more form based is that we will make the 8, hopefully with for and against being to our advantage.

  • I said at the start of the season that we would scrape into the 8 and I haven't changed my view on that. I agree with the games you marked as games we should win but I'm no that confident about the titans game. They have a habit of beating us be it away or at home. Hopefully we can snare a game or 2 we are not expected to win as well.

  • Great read!

    We should beat the cowboys,dragons without their stars, bulldogs, storm without their stars, west tigers, knights, dogs again and Souths. Plus the byes that's leaves us on 34 points. But fingers crossed we can do this! I'll be happy to just make the 8, it's been 8 years since we have
  • If Parra play all the bottom of the table teams in the finals, we'll win the comp!!

  • This reply was deleted.
    • Gem, like our for and against will matter in the end. If you can't beat the top sides, what's the point.
  • If we can pull off two wins going into the buy would be tops. Need Jenko back asap
  • We should win 8 of those. Add the 2 byes and we should be sweetly in the Top 6.

    Bulldogs x2 (been beating them the past couple years), Wests, Bunnies, Knights, Titans, Cowboys (JT-less) and Saints we've been smashing regularly. Storm and and full strength Bronco's will be tough stuff. At worse I think we'll win 6.

  • Good blog Hamish

    I disagree on a couple of your points but a well constructed insightful blog.

    Where I disagree - Bulldogs (much like the Worryers) are not a given nor would I expect to win.

    Even they do not know what game they will bring on the day and are more than capable of rolling us if they bring their good game. I am not sure how long Reynolds is out for, but once he is back and they drop Mbye from the halves they will fire and be competitive against the best of teams.

    So there is 2 games possibly deleted from your forecast.

    Now interestingly enough a depleted Dragons is NOT a push over team and could be an each way bet.

    A depleted Storm IS very beatable.

    So by my reckoning you have over calculated out finish by a minimum of 6 points and possibly 8.

    We are precariously clinging to 8th spot for now and if we beat the Cowboys nothing is going to change because the Raiders and Panters are breathing down our neck with far better F&A.

    Unless we go on a freakish winning streak will will struggle to remain in the 8 come end of September.

    All I need from the team is the sort of performance that will see me wearing egg on my face again during the ORF SEEZUN

    This is simply NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

    • 10th and another BA failure. Sorry but that is the likely scenario.
  • What other teams are doing is irrelevant - some will go up and some down. We have won 7 of our first 13 rounds. With two byes to come we need to win 6 out of the next 11 games. If we only win 5 we will have won 12 out of 24 and we will miss out on our for and against. 

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