Earlier this year, I asked the question: “Does Parramatta have enough size”. Most people were adamant that we had enough power in our forwards through blokes like Matagi and Brown, and that we would play a mobile game that would make up for giving away size to opposition teams.
The problem with that theory is it can work, but only when you have a level playing field. When you get into the grind, and both teams are constantly moving and working, that is when your mobile forwards come into their own. Eventually, the larger forwards start to tire, they’re line speed slows down and your blokes with the fast leg speed ever increasingly start getting over the advantage line, which has a compounding effect on the opposition’s pack. See the Dragons game for how this plays out.
However, when you’re playing from behind, it goes the other way. When the big forwards can get set against us, and they have a lot of energy, instead it is the smaller forward who is asked to use excessive energy because they have to be much more aggressive in the collision to match the bigger player. See the Canberra game for how this plays out.
I believe Rugby League is a game that is more about energy than any other single factor. When you have teams that are so closely matched, as is the case with the modern NRL game, mostly it is the team that is able to exhibit the most energy that gets away with the win. When your energy is drained those little extra efforts like that bit of strength you need to hold a player up on the try line, or getting into the right spots to just make a decoy run when you’re spent, just doesn’t happen.
Coaches know this. They put a lot of effort into plans to sap the opposition's energy, particularly targetting key players in important positions. I’ve posted elsewhere that opposition coaches know Kaysa is a little bloke who is being asked to play eighty minutes and they’re running their big boppers at him. If you lose energy from your dummy half, you’re behind the eight ball straight away.
Most importantly though, we’re a team that simply cannot win without high possession rates. Dropped balls and penalties which result in us having to defend back to back sets and ceding territorial advantage is going to sap those energy levels and force us into constantly playing out of our red zone. We have a light fullback, one smallish winger, and another winger who’s head doesn’t seem to be entirely in the game. To make up for that, both of our centres are having to get back and make early runs that put an extra strain on them as well. Without a strong start to these recovery sets, you’re smaller forwards are just running into the eye of the storm, and they're going to get smashed. Again, all this is lost energy. With lost energy also comes loss of concentration. All of those efforts take a toll, and we just can’t finish out our halves strongly.
That’s the core problem, as I see it. What can we do about it.
1) With Bevan French at the back, I don’t think Brad Arthur has a choice but to play two strong wingers. Josh Hoffman has not done anything wrong, but you’ve got to make up for French’s lack of size by having two powerful running wingers that you’re going to get 100m+ out of every game. I feel George Jennings would represent an upgrade and Scott Schulte has decent size about him too. Semi is getting regularly dominated on his carries, which just never happened in past years. Until we arrest those poor early starts to the sets, we’ll always struggle to turn momentum around. I think Hoffman needs to be considered exclusively as a centre or backup fullback.
2) Zero tolerance for penalties. Manu Mau has been guilty a number of times of doing his best to slow down the ruck, when bigger forwards have started to get a roll on, and we’ve been pinged for penalties late in the tackle count. On multiple occasions these penalties have led directly to tries. If our forwards are getting rolled over we just have to live with that. Referees have shown this year, they have no tolerance for anything in the play-the-ball when the ball carrying player has dominated the collision.
3) Siosaia Vave has to start, as does Nathan Brown. Tim Mannah and Suaia Matagi just don’t work as starting props. A good forward pairing combines one large prop to bend the line back and then a second forward with good leg speed to build on that. I would probably start Vave and Matagi and have Mannah come off the bench.
4) We need our second rowers back. I said during pre-season, we would struggle if we copped any injuries in the second row ranks, and we’re currently doing without two of our best three. You lose penetration of the edge and it’s very hard to do anything with your attack. French is getting no room outside of the second rower because we’re pretty toothless there, so defences are easily able to slide to cover him. Personally, I think Taka's now probably better suited to an edge runner role, although, whether he's got the workrate to do so is questionable. It would certainly help us to cover injuries on that front.
5) Kaysa can’t play eighty minutes. Kaysa needs a rest and I still think he’s a better player off the bench where his energy reserves are best used for impact. From an energy perspective, Cody Nelson might be the right player. Start with Nelson and gives the team the best chance to absorb the early challenge and then set up so the second half of the contest is where we really aim to put points on. When we get Kenny Edwards coming back off the bench, we’ll be in a much better position to use that second 20m as our peak period, rather than the period of the game we’re just hanging in there.
All this said, I don’t think there is any need to panic. We’re bedding in a new spine and we’ve lost games against the defending Premiers and the pre-season favourites (the latter at a venue where we haven’t won in years). We'll get better as the year goes on, we just have to make sure we stay in contention. However, I think it’s important to recognise that when you have a game that is based on positive energy, there are certain things you need to consider to ensure you protect those reserves, or else you end up finishing your halves running on empty and spluttering to the end.
Replies
Point 1 is spot on, exactly what ive been saying, we need big wingers, and Mannah is not a starting prop.
Totally agree.
Also Phil, larger packs play with a lower risk factor, as they can make the meters and bend the line simply by carting the ball up the middle from thier own halves, as weve seen with the Dragons and Raiders for example.
BA has the small pack mentality tactics that requires us to take risks with these silly little offloads, that do somtimes work, but its very risky as weve seen. IT'S NOT WORKING - HELLO
Phil the only way out of this is to recruit, we dont have the cattle.
He has the size to continually get over the advantage line and never gets run over in defence. Why he isn't in the side has me baffled? OK I'm ready to be told he is a plodder and I don't have a clue, hit me with it!
A great blog and agree with all of it.
BA has been scarred off buying marquee players it seems and who could blame him after the Foran / Watmough debacles. I'm hoping that he is quickly realising that the money in the kitty needs to be spent as soon as a decent hooker and / or half is available.KP is indeed being hammered late in halves.
Mannah and Matagi are going ok but shouldn't be starting.
Brown was close to our best on Saturday.
IDG is missed dearly.
Edwards returning will be a big boost as you've said.
Taka's chronic injury is well...chronic and centre seems now beyond him although he still has a lot to offer, just not in the backs.
French has quite a bit to learn at fullback, which was to be expected. He is being exposed due to the reasons you gave.
We need another big bopper. Being mobile is great, but some size to help get off our line would be invaluable.
Norman needs to be told NOT to run the ball on the 4th. Two sets in a row he did it last game.
Our right side D is poor and it has been for many years? What's doing with that? We need to try a different winger for a couple of weeks.
BA needs to bring in one or two players to show that no player's position is safe.
We are also missing De Gois, he provides the energy in defence by setting our line speed, it was peats role before he departed and de gois took over the role.
Geez Frankie!!!
You've got no patience, bro!!!
New spine, new team!!!
Let me remind you that when we made the top signings in 1996 we still failed that season but then had a mean team the next 5 years.
Any chance we are nervy of dipping into the second tier cap though?
Betting that Brad would've been hoping Brown would've worked in the hooker experiment a little better as well.
Something has gotta change with how we use Kaysa.
Tried his heart out but it's not working...it's unfair to all concerned really.
Stop going up the middle against certain teams and hit the edge.
Melbourne and Canberra are 2 sides Id stay well away from the middle because of size and the wrestle.
The prop rotation they have is we have one type of player.I mean look at Mannah Matagi & Alvaro theere the same type of player why do we need 3 guys like that.Paulo and Peats were huge outs last year because the first mentioned provided size and skill and Peats was an old fashioned tough as nails Hooker who got our pack going foward.
The only front rower with a point of difference is Nathan Brown as he has footwork and an off load.
To me BA is doing the best with what he has left the players need to execute what the game plan is week to week until we get everyone back.
I've done two past blogs on our lack of forward size - "Our Small Pack", parts 1 and 2. I stated we were small when we had Jr Paulo and Pauli across our forwards squad and that we will struggle without this size. Now that these players have left we are very, very small. You may remember I was heavily criticised for these blogs.
The game is moving in a somewhat new direction with big attacking mobile frontrowers being the vital key to success and sort after. The elite big mobile frontrowers are now earning big money because they can make or break a teams result. A prime example is the Dragons. The Dragons had minimal go forward and lacked points week in week out last year and the signing of a big very mobile attacking frontrower in Vaughan and with the return of a very fit Packer have completely changed the 2017 Dragons team.
Matagi is a whole hearted frontrower and he has a big dig in games, but he looks flat and worn out 5 weeks into the season and a change is needed.
On this topic if we wanted a big mobile aggressive starting pack with our current squad the below pack may be the way to go, particularly playing the Warriors this weekend:
8. Vave
9. K.Pritchard
10. F.Pritchard
11. Ma'u
12. Moeroa
13. Brown
Res.
14. Edwards
15. Scott
16. Mannah
17. Matagi
Where were you BD when I was writing similar blogs. Joshua was the only one I remember constantly supporting me. I was particularly put down when I dared say our pack was well below top 8 standard in previous years.
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