Eels Blogs

At a request of another 1 Eyed Eel member I have analysed the upcoming season and how the season 'might' pan out.  I have looked at the draw, main player signings and losses, 2017 placings, 2017 attack and defence rankings and the like. 

Before we start making 2018 predictions we need to look back at last year and the players moving clubs for this up coming season and see how those player movements will impact their new teams in attack, defence and squad depth.  

****2017 Table & 2018 Player Transfers****

1.  STORM - 44 points, 1st in attack and 1st in defence last season.  

2018 Gains - Hoffman & Kasiano

2018 Losses - Cronk, Harris & McLean

2.  ROOSTERS - 38 points, 7th in attack and 3rd in defence last season.

2018 Gains - Cronk & Tedesco

2018 Losses - Pearce, Guerra, Evans, Watson & Gordon

3.  BRONCOS - 36 points, 2nd in attack and 4th in defence last season.  

2018 Gains - Bird, Tagataese, Lodge

2018 Losses - Hunt, Blair, Ese'ese, Moga Marshall, Arrow

4.  EELS - 36 points, 8th in attack and 8th in defence last season

2018 Gains - Hayne, Evans, Williams

2018 Losses - Radradra & F.Pritchard

5.  SHARKS - 34 points, 9th in attack and 2nd in defence last season

2018 Gains - Dugan, Moylan, Gray & Seumanufagai

2018 Losses - Maloney, Bird, Beale, Heighington, Brown, Tagataese, Williams & Latimore

6.  SEA EAGLES - 32 points, 4th in attack and 11th in defence last season

2018 Gains - Thompson & L.Croker

2018 Losses - Green & Lawrence

7.  PANTHERS - 30 points, 6th in attack and 9th in defence last season

2018 Gains - Maloney

2018 Losses - Moylan & Latu

8.  COWBOYS - 30 points, 10th in attack and 5th in defence last season

2018 Gains - McLean

2018 Losses - Ponga & Thompson

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9.  DRAGONS - 28 points, 5th in attack and 6th in defence last season

2018 Gains - Hunt, Graham, Latimore & Allgood

2018 Losses - Dugan, Packer, Thompson, McCrone, Marketo & Matthews

10.  RAIDERS - 26 points, 3rd in attack and 10th in defence last season

2018 Gains - Gubb, Havili & Williams

2018 Losses - Priest & Taylor

11.  BULLDOGS - 24 points, 16th in attack and 7th in defence last year.  

2018 Gains - Foran, Woods, Priest & Brown

2018 Losses - Graham, Reynolds, Kasiano & B.Lee

12.  RABBITOHS - 22 points, 11th in attack and 12th in defence last year.  

2018 Gains - Gagai

2018 Losses - Gray, Goodwin & Tyrrell

13.  WARRIORS - 18 points, 13th in attack and 14th in defence last year.  

2018 Gains - Blair, Harris, Green, Hiku, Beale, Paasi, Pulu

2018 Losses - Foran, Hoffman, Lillyman, Matulino, Thompson, Vatuvei & Gubb

14.  WEST TIGERS - 18 points, 15th in attack and 13th in defence last year.  

2018 Gains - Packer, Matulino, Reynolds, McQueen, Rochow, Marshall & Fonua

2018 Losses - Woods, Tedesco, Idris, Seumanufagai, Edwards & Ballin

15.  TITANS - 18 points, 12th in attack and 15th in defence last year.

2018 Gains - Latu, Gordon, B.Lee, Rein, Arrow, Stockwell & Matthews

2018 Losses - Hayne, McQueen, Paasi, Pulu, Roberts, Zillman, Pettybourne & Sarginson

16.  KNIGHTS - 14 points, 14th in attack and 16th in defence last year.  

2018 Gains - Pearce, Ponga, Guerra, Lillyman, Heighington, Ese'ese, Moga, Watson & Griffin

2018 Losses - Gagai & Mullen

****2018 Predictions**** - Drum roll please...

1st.  ROOSTERS - I believe the chooks will be minor premiers in 2018 if they have a good run with injuries and they keep their star players on the paddock.  The signings of Cronk and Tedesco will have a massive impact on their consistency and the kicking game of Cronk will be the icing on the cake.  I believe their attack will go from 7th last year to 1st.  Tedesco will be very dangerous with a large forward pack punching holes up the middle.    

2nd.  STORM - I am of the opinion the Storm will finish 2nd or 3rd in the season proper.  Croft looks the goods and the transition with Cronk out and Croft in 'may' be seamless.  Smith and Slater do not look like they are deteriorating with old age and they still have a rep quality team again.  The loss of Harris and McLean is cancelled out with the signings of Hoffman and a fit Kasiano.  Having a fit Kasiano and Asofa-Solomona on the bench seems unfair :(  The Storm and Roosters in 2018 could be a significant step above the rest of the top 8.

3rd.  COWBOYS - The Cowboys showed last year they are far more then a one player team.  Not only did Michael Morgan step up and replace Thurston late in the season, his game dramatically improved to the point of him being best player in the comp late in the season.  With the signing of McLean and the return from injuries of Scott and Thurston will see the Cowboys move from the 8th position to the top 4 in the season proper.  

4th.  SHARKS - The Sharks will be highly competitive again and will compete with the Eels, Broncos and the Panthers for the last top 4 position.  I think the signings of Dugan and Moylan and the improvement of Holmes will see their attack move up from 9th.  The unknown question is will the loss of Maloney be minor or huge and will we see a steep decline in Gallen and Lewis due to their age?  With the emergence of their talented rake and several very talented u20's prop them up nicely?  

5th.  EELS - The unknown question for the mighty Eels is how much of a loss with Semi be?  Semi took a lot of pressure off our small pack with his powerful runs out of the red zone and had a knack to pull a big play out when we desperately needed one.  When you consider we allegedly have around 500K left in the 2018 salary cap you start to think we stuffed up by not offering Semi more money.  What a backline it would have been if Semi was outside Hayne!  The next question for the Eels is do we have the pack to compete with the Roosters, Storm and Cowboys in 2018?  The strength the Eels have in 2018 is its quality depth and any player can be confidently replaced with another if injuries occur.  The best signing for the Eels in 2018 might just be the new Strength and Conditioning Coach?  As we finished 8th in both attack and defence in 2017 we will need to improve a lot to compete for the top 4 this year.  BA would have had a smile on his face when he saw the 2018 draw and realised we only play the Storm, Roosters and Broncos once!  Will Gutho, French and Hayne turn us into a top 2 team?  Will Norman play State of Origin in 2018 with Thurston and Cronk retiring?  Will Moses play State of Origin this year?  Will Brown play State of Origin this year?        

6th.  BRONCOS - The Broncs are a hard team to figure out.  Will the losses of Hunt, Blair and Moga hurt them or will the signings of Jack Bird and Lodge improve them?  Kodi Nikorima showed that he is first grade material and had great results with the Milf when Hunt was out last year.  The new giant on the block - Payne Haas (194cm & 117kg) - and a fit and rehabilitated Lodge (191cm & 121kg) may be the missing link for the Broncos.  Their small pack now has some size.  Will the Milf go to the next level like what we saw from Michael Morgan last year or remain as is?  As Marshall has left they do not have a back up half with first grade experience and an area they might struggle if injuries occur.  It will not surprise me if the Broncos finish in the top 4 again or alternatively if they don't make the top 8.  

7th.  PANTHERS - The signing of Maloney will improve their attack and could see them move up from 6th position last year in attack and be in the top 3 spots this year.  Nathan Cleary showed glimpses last year that he is a superstar in the making and may be the centre piece of them being a top 2 team.  They have the pack moving forward and the only thing that may knock them off their perch is an injury to Cleary or Maloney.  Are they contenders or pretenders?  Time will tell?  It will be a good first up game against us, very physical with plenty of spite.    

8th.  DRAGONS - I think the Dragons will go from 9th last year and move into the top 8 this year by one or two positions.  The loss of Packer, Thompson and Dugan will hurt them, but the gain of Hunt and the experience of Graham should slightly improve them?  You would think having a recognised half will improve their 4th and 5th set plays in attack and give them genuine attack on both the left and right, unlike last year.  

9th.  KNIGHTS - The Knights should be the big mover and shaker of the comp with 9 new signings with 8 of the new signings from 2017 top 3 teams.  The signings of Pearce and Ponga alone are monumental and should catapult their attack.  With these new signings we should see the Knights go from 16th in defence to possibly top 8 with the experience in their new forward pack.  If the Knights gel and settle quickly with the huge influx of new players they could be a top 8 team?  I'm looking forward to seeing Pearce, Watson, Ponga and Levi directing this new team around the park.  If things click and they have a good run with injuries don't be surprised if the Knights become a top 6-7 team in 2018 or 2019.  

10th.  SEA EAGLES - I think the Eagles might take a nose dive and slip from 6th to 10th with the loss of Green and Lawrence.  With no recognised 5/8 they will struggle in attack and should slip from 4th to outside the top 8.  Turbo Tom and Jake will need to play out of their skins each week for them to remain in the top 8 this year.  DCE will need to stay injury free for the whole season for them to be competitive.    

11th.  RABBITOHS - The Rabbits might slightly improve on last year with the return of Inglis and the signing of Gagai.  Will the brothers - Tom and George - do a Kasiano and lose much needed weight or return too heavy again?  If Tom and George return in good shape the Rabbits may be highly competitive again.  Will Angus Crichton fulfil his 2019 pay packet and be the next big State of Origin thing or flop?  Will the Rabbits release Crichton early to the Roosters?  My guess is not.  

12th.  BULLDOGS - Will the signings of Foran and Woods improve them?  Will Mybe excel at fullback? Will Klemmer change anything with having the number 10 on his back?  Will Lichaa run the ball?  Will Foran and Matt Frawley work in the halves?  Will the Morris boys improve?  Will a new Coach reinvent the dogs?  Will the Dogs attack improve from 16th in 2017?  Plenty of unknowns.  As long as we flog them I don't care.    

13th.  RAIDERS - Poor old Sticky.  I shed a tear when I heard Hodgson did his knee late last year.  The Raiders excelled last year in attack and finished 3rd, but their defence let them down and they finished in 10th spot.  With Hodgson out injured their attack will take a nose dive and they will struggle with 5th plays in attack.  Back up hooker signings of Havili and Williams will not make much of a difference.  The only thing that will save the Raiders is if their halves Sezer and Austin play out of their skins each week and Paulo and Boyd became as cardo fit as Alvaro, which is extremely unlikely.   

14th.  WARRIORS - Flip a coin with the Warriors with where they finish.  The signings of Blair, Harris and Green should improve them, particularly green with 5th play options and kicking.  Hiku, Beale, Paasi and Pulu should give them depth.  Maybe with little to no expectations like previous years they might just quietly move up the table (might).  Will Brian Smith help or hinder the club?    

15th.  WEST TIGERS - The loss of Tedesco is monumental.  The loss of Woods will hurt them to a certain degree.  Packer, Matulino and McQueen might improve their grunt in the middle?  The biggest issue with the Tigers is their backline and where the points are going to come from.  The wooden spoon is very possible.  

16th.  TITANS - The loss of Hayne, McQueen and Roberts will hurt them.  Roberts was one of their most consistent players last year at 5/8 and fullback.  Paasi and Pulu was the only decent players on the bench.  Will the signings of Latu, Gordon, Lee, Rein, Arrow, Stockwell and Matthews make any difference?  I hope Gordon plays well.  Ash Taylor will need to be Superman this year for the Titans to not be in the bottom 4.  

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Well, sorry for the war and peace.  As you can see the competition is super tight and what a great season we have coming up.  The salary cap actually works. 

Go Parra!  

What's your thoughts and predictions?